تحليل چشم انداز سياسي و راهبرد دوگانه شاه در مواجهه با انقلاب اسلامي

Analysing the Shah's Dual Strategy in Confrontation to the Islamic Revolution (Text in Persian)

مواجهه شاه با انقلاب اسلامي نه ناآگاهانه و نه توام با دودلي بود، بلكه بر اساس چشم انداز سياسي شاه طراحي شده و مبتني بر راهبردي دوگانه بود. با مطالعه چشمانداز و نيز منطق سياسي شاه و با استفاده از روش تحليل موقعيت به اين نتيجه مي رسيم كه شاه در مقابل خود، دو دسته دشمن را تصور مي كرد، يكي دشمنان قوي كه از نظر وي، دولت هاي آمريكا و انگليس بودند و ديگري، دشمنان ضعيف كه شامل همه دشمنان داخلي شاه مي شد. راهبرد دوگانه به شاه حكم مي كرد كه در برابر دشمنان قوي كرنش كند، چون خود را در مقابل آنان ناتوان مي ديد و امكان مقابله نداشت؛ ولي در مقابل دشمنان ضعيف، شدت عمل به خرج دهد. باز كردن فضاي سياسي در سال 56 و سپس سركوب مخالفان از دي ماه همان سال، كاملا مطابق با آن راهبرد برنامه ريزي شده بود. همچنين به كار گماردن دولت آشتي ملي جعفر شريف امامي در سال 57 و سپس كشتار ددمنشانه تظاهركنندگان در 17 شهريور تنها با فاصله 11 روز، فقط بر مبناي اين راهبر دوگانه قابل توضيح است. مطالعه دقيق تاريخ انقلاب اسلامي به ما نشان مي دهد كه شاه در طول دوران انقلاب همواره اين راهبرد را به كار مي گرفت و واكنش هاي خود را بر اساس آن انتخاب مي كرد.

The Shah's confrontation with the Islamic Revolution was neither ignorantly nor half-heatedly. It was rather carefully designed and applied based on the Shah's political perspective and a dual strategy. Employing situational analysis and studying the Shah's political logic we can realize that the Shah was seeing two groups of enemies in front of him. The first group of enemies consisted of his strong enemies، i.e. the US and Britain governments whom the Shah was considering his enemies after the post-1973 rise of oil prices and the role the Shah played in that event; whereas the other group of enemies were his weak enemies namely all domestic oppositions including the clergy، intellectuals، leftist and the masses of people. Giving the upper hand in Iranian politics to the foreign powers was in line with a political perspective adopted by many politicians in the Shah generation.The dual strategy suggested that the Shah should be humble in front of the strong enemy because he could not resist his might، while he should oppress the weak enemy using all his military power as well as his secret service، i.e. the SAVAK. In 1977 his opening of the political space and then after few months oppressing the opposition was in line with the dual strategy. In fact، he followed the US advice in opening the political space، and then after ensuring that the US government satisfied، he started to be harsh against the opposition. Also in 1978، appointing Jafar Sharif Imami whose government came to power with the motto of compromise and then suddenly after 11 days declaring curfew and harshly shooting the demonstrators can be only explained based on that dual strategy. An accurate study of the revolution shows that the Shah employed the dual strategy and based all his reactions to the revolution on that strategy.