پديد آورندگان :
نگهبان، سعيد دانشگاه شيراز - دانشكده اقتصاد - مديريت و علوم اجتماعي - گروه جغرافيا، شيراز، ايران , گنجائيان، حميد دانشگاه تهران- دانشكده جغرافيا - گروه جغرافياي طبيعي، تهران، ايران , ابراهيمي، عطرين دانشگاه تبريز - دانشكده جغرافيا و برنامه ريزي- گروه جغرافياي طبيعي، تبريز، ايران , امامي، كاميار دانشگاه تهران- دانشكده جغرافيا - گروه جغرافياي طبيعي، تهران، ايران
كليدواژه :
سكونتگاه , سنقر , كاربري اراضي , تغييرات , LCM
چكيده فارسي :
شهرنشيني يكي از عوامل انساني مهم و تأثير‌گذار بر كاربري اراضي و همچنين تغييردهنده ويژگي‌هاي مختلف سطح زمين است. با توجه به روند رو به رشد نواحي سكونتگاهي و افزايش ميزان تخريب اراضي مستعد، اين پژوهش سعي دارد تا روند تغييرات مناطق مسكوني در شهر سنقر را مورد ارزيابي قرار دهد و همچنين بر مبناي تغييرات صورت گرفته بين سالهاي 2000 تا 2012، روند اين تغييرات براي سالهاي 2025 و 2040 پيشبيني كند. درواقع هدف اصلي تحقيق حاضر آگاهي از شرايط آينده كاربري اراضي در صورت ادامه يافتن روند موجود است. روش كار به اين صورت است كه پس از تهيه تصاوير ماهواره‌اي و پيش‌پردازش تصاوير، كاربري اراضي محدوده مطالعاتي براي سالهاي 2000 و 2012 تهيه و با استفاده از مدل LCM ميزان تغييرات كاربري اراضي آناليز شده است. سپس بر اساس مدل زنجيره ماركوف ميزان پتانسيل تغيير هر كاربري به كاربري سكونت گاهي سنجيده شده است. پس از محاسبه پتانسيل انتقال هر كاربري به كاربري سكونت گاهي با استفاده از داده هاي توصيفي موردنظر، نقشه پيشبيني سخت كاربري اراضي براي سالهاي 2025 و 2040 تهيه شده است. نتايج حاصله بيانگر اين است كه نواحي سكونتگاهي محدوده مطالعاتي از 3/8 كيلومترمربع در سال 2000 به 6/12 كيلومترمربع در سال 2012 رسيده است كه اين مقدار بيانگر رشد قابل توجه نواحي دارد. همچنين نتايج حاصل از پيشبيني بيانگر اين است كه ميزان گسترش نواحي سكونت گاهي تا سال 2025 و 2040 به‌ترتيب به 2/18 و 1/24 كيلومترمربع خواهد رسيد.
چكيده لاتين :
Considering the ever-increasing changes in land uses and the need for managers and experts to know how changes have taken place in policy and options for solving the existing problems. Detection of changes to determine the trend over time seems necessary. On the other hand, modeling future changes is important for understanding the quality of future changes. Therefore, the full recognition of land use, its past changes and the prediction of future changes plays an important role in the sustainable management of resources. Modeling land use processes is an important tool in optimizing land use and land use planning. One of the models used to predict landslide changes is the model of artificial neural networks and Markov chain analysis. The features of the artificial neural network include the ability to learn and generalize and process information in parallel.
Considering the goal of urban development during the years 2000 to 2012, satellite imagery of the years 2000 and 2012 in June has been used. After the preparation of satellite imagery and pre-processing of images, the landuse in the study area for the years 2000 and 2012 has been prepared. Then useing the LCM model landuse change patterns of changes were analyzed. Then, based on the Markov chain model, the potential for changing each use to residential use is measured. This means that each pixel was capable of showing change the image from one land use to another. Then, based on the major changes in the region in the survey, three sub-models of shifting change were identified as transforming pastures into habitat areas, converting agricultural production into settlements, and transforming dryland farming into settlements. After calculating the potential for the transfer of any land use to a settlement using descriptive data, a plan for predicting the use of land for 2025 and 2040 was then provided.
Given that the purpose of the present study was to assess the development of residential areas, the extent of changes in these areas were assessed during the years 2000 to 2012. The results indicate that the residential areas increased from 8.3 square kilometers in 2000 to 12.6 square kilometers in 2012, according to the land use map, and mostly changes in the urban area of Songhor area have been made. The results of the assessment of changes indicate that the land use change from irrigated agricultural to residential use during the 12 year period was 1.9 km2, which for dryland agriculture it was 0.6 kilometers, Also 1.8 km2 of rangelands has become residential. The results of this study indicate that the irrigated agricultural lands of the city of Sangar, especially the southern regions and pastures near the urban area, have had most changes. Among the changes in other uses, about 11.5 km2 of the rangeland has been converted into rainfed farming, and about 12.3 km2 of land has also become rangelands and also, about 4.7 km2 of irrigated agricultural has become arable land or Bayer land and about 1.5 km2 of rangelands has become irrigated agricultural land.
