ارائه مدل يكپارچه ي انتخاب مقصد سفرهاي خريد پوشاك با به كارگيري مدل هاي معادله ساختاري

Modeling integrated Clothing shopping Destinations Selection Using Structure Equation Models

مدل هاي توزيع سفر كمتر و به طور غيرمستقيم در قالب ماهيت رفتاري بيان مي شوند. در مدل هاي رفتاري توزيع سفرِ، استفاده شده در پژوهش ها متعدد نيز، تلاش شده است؛ تا با استفاده از ساده سازي و بهره گيري از متغيرهاي كلان كاربري زمين و اقتصادي- اجتماعي، مطلوبيت نواحي را براي افراد توضيح داده شود (ساختار تصميم گيري ساده). بررسي پژوهش ها در خصوص رفتار مشتريان مراكز خريد نشان مي دهد كه علاوه بر متغيرهاي قابل مشاهده ي جمعيت شناختي و اقتصادي- اجتماعي، متغيرهاي رفتاري فردي پنهان چون متغيرهاي روان شناختي، نگرش، سبك زندگي، نوع خريدار نيز در تحليل رفتار مشتريان مهم است (ساختار تصميم گيري پيچيده). با الهام از پژوهش هاي رفتارشناختي مشتريان مراكز خريد، ايده ي كاربست اين متغيرها در انتخاب مقصد سفرهاي خريد افراد با استفاده از مدل هاي ساختاري و به صورت همزمان (مدل يكپارچه) مطرح گرديد (نوآوري پژوهش جاري). مدل سازي معادله ساختاري ابزاري براي بررسي مسائل پيچيده اجتماعي، اقتصادي، رفتاري و ساير است كه توانايي سنجش ميزان تاثيرگذاري مجموعه اي از متغيرها بر يكديگر و به صورت همزمان را در اختيار پژوهشگر مي گذارد. در پژوهش جاري با بكارگيري مدل معادله ساختاري و با انجام پرسشگري اينترنتي (213 نمونه سالم) داده ها اقتصادي- اجتماعي، نگرش، سبك زندگي و نوع خريدار گرآوري شدند. مدل يكپارچه اين پژوهش توانسته است 42 درصد انتخاب شدن مقاصد را به صورت درست پيش بيني كند كه در بين مقاصد مقصد 1 (بازار و پلاسكو) بيشترين فراواني مطلق بازتوليد صحيح انتخاب شدن را دارند.

Problem of choosing the destination is important in transportation planning processes. The problem is to find the probability that traveller from a given departure will choose a specific destination among many available alternatives. This paper focuses on destination selection for non-work (shopping purposes) trips, as a part of the transportation planning process, in particular: trip-based and activity-based models. In general, destination choice models are estimated and applied at the traffic zone level, although the actual destination is an elemental alternative inside a traffic zone. Therefore, the number of explicit modeled choice alternative is usually equal to the number of traffic zones. Most destination choice models assume a Multinomial Logit (MNL) form for the problem. The Multinomial Logit cannot account unobserved similarities among alternatives, since the covariance matrix of the MNL model only has diagonal elements. The purpose of this paper is to investigate alternative destination choice model structures, focusing on structure equation models. The non-work destination choice problem is studied in spatial choice modeling. The literature concerned with spatial choice models covers several disciplines and important insights and can be found in spatial behavior and spatial interaction models. Trip distribution models are expressed indirectly in terms of behavior models and this issue is more highlighted in trip generation and trip distribution. Considering new approach to transport planning (activity- based) and modeling behavior of passengers, the activity location choice is more attended and usually discrete choice models are used. Many studies describe zonal utility (simple decision structure) by using land-use and socioeconomic variables and thus cannot describe individual behavior in disaggregate level. For a more accurate description of individual utility, recent studies have used simultaneous choice process concept. On the other hand, few studies used structural equation models and latent variables to describe the choice of activity location. Investigating individual features in activity location choice by using structure equation models have been considered in recent studies. Considering the importance of determining activity location in an activity-based approach, the use of exogenous and explainer variables is significant. The variables in classic destination choice models firstly are supposed to be independent and secondly care less about psychological and personal feature of passengers. Considering these two points, the power and efficiency of representation of behavior are reduced. Studies on the consumer behavior in shopping centers showed that in addition to observable demographic and socio-economic variables, latent individual variables such as psychological variable, lifestyle and shopping orientation are important and must be noticed (complex decision structure). The idea of applying these variables in modeling the individual clothing shopping destination choices by using structure equation models was inspired by ethology studies on customers of shopping centers, which is counted as the novelty of this paper. In this paper 213 samples are collected by internet-based questionnaire and individuals’ socio-economic, attitude, lifestyle and shopping orientation were asked. This integrated model is able to correctly predict 42% of observations, among which destination number 1 (Bazar of Tehran and Plasko shopping center) I the most appealing.