بررسي جايگاه ايران در منطقه خاورميانه و آسياي مركزي در افق سال 2015 ميلادي براساس شاخص هاي اقتصادي و زيست محيطي اهداف توسعه هزاره

A Survey of Iran’s place between Middle Eastern and Central Asia countries according to economic and environmental indexes of MDG

در اين پژوهش سعي كرده ايم كه با استفاده از داده هاي سالانه اهداف توسعه هزاره و مدلهاي اقتصاد سنجي سري زمانيARIMA مقادير شاخص هاي زيست محيطي و اقتصادي در سال 2015 ميلادي را برآورد كرده و جايگاه ايران در مقايسه با كشورهاي منطقه خاورميانه و آسياي مركزي به تفكيك هر يك از شا خص ها را ارائه مي كنيم.در بخش تحليلي اين مطالعه مقادير آتي مربوط به هر يك از شاخص ها را برآورد كرده و در جدول رتبه بندي قرار مي دهيم.سپس با توجه به ارزش هاي برآورد شده به آزمون 3 فرضيه اصلي پژوهشي مي پردازيم. در بخش نهايي و نتيجه گيري با توجه به بررسي ها و برآوردهاي صورت گرفته،هر 3 فرضيه مطالعه كه در بردارنده فرض قرار گيري ايران در ميان 5 كشور اول منطقه در اهداف اول،دوم و هفتم از اهداف توسعه هزاره است،مورد بررسي قرار مي دهيم.

Conspicuously enough, UN-MDG (Millennium Development Goals) indexes cover the various aspects of economic development in countries. Indeed, MDGs are collection from the World Bank and the IMF indexes which were used for monitoring economics status and every member of the UN is subjected to report the required data in former designed format and frequency. Furthermore reported data and usage of indexes provide tremendous chance to compare the countries with each other. In the year 2002, Iran has adopted a strategic vision named “Iran 1202” which is suggested that Iran is going to be the 1st country in the ME and CA region in economic, social, cultural aspects. BY using almost 20 years long data of MDG indexes and the use of ADF and ARIMA time series models the index values of countries in 2012 are estimated and in the result by ranking Iran position among Middle Eastern and central Asian countries in the year 2012 is forecasted. Due to lack of data in some indexes a combination of graphical trend analysis and ARIMA models are used. In conclusion in the year 2012 Iran would be in the 2 high rank countries in the 1st,2nd, 7th goals of MDG.