عنوان مقاله :
ارائه ي مدلي تركيبي از روش ديمتل و فرايند تحليل سلسله مراتبي فازي به منظور رتبه بندي عوامل موثر بر ريسك پروژه هاي نيروگاهي
عنوان به زبان ديگر :
REPRESENTING A MULTI- ATTRIBUTE FUZZY AHP AND FUZZY DEMATEL APPROACH IN ORDER TO RANK RISK EFFECTIVE FACTORS IN POWERHOUSE PROJECTS
پديد آورندگان :
همتي، محمد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي سمنان واحد سمنان - گروه مديريت , باهو، علي
كليدواژه :
رتبه بندي ريسك , تصميم گيري چندمعياره , تحليل سلسله مراتبي فازي , ديمتل فازي
چكيده فارسي :
مديريت ريسك مهم ترين بخش مديريت پروژه است كه كمتر در سازمان ها به آن پرداخته و به صورت نظام مند اعمال مي شود. در اين تحقيق يك مدل تلفيقي از روش ديمتل فازي و تحليل سلسله مراتبي فازي براي شناسايي، رتبه بندي و ارزيابي عوامل ريسك ها در پروژه هاي نيروگاهي ارائه شده است. از نتايج مهم تحقيق شناسايي عوامل علي و تعيين عوامل اصلي ريسك در پروژه هاي نيروگاهي است. رتبه بندي اين عوامل نشان مي دهد كه در ميان معيارهاي اصلي تحقيق، عوامل اجرا و ساخت بالاترين رتبه را كسب كرده اند. ريسك اجرا و ساخت كه در وزن دهي با تحليل سلسله مراتبي داراي رتبه ي اول است، با روش ديمتل نيز بيشترين وزن را دارد و با ساير معيارها در تعامل حداكثري قرار دارد؛ از اين رو به دليل اثرپذيري بيشتر معياري معلول محسوب مي شود.
چكيده لاتين :
Anxiety for incorrect risks management is the most important obstacle to the development of investment projects. Risk management is the most important part of project management in organizations discussed below, and there is not systematic
structural approach to the risk assessment in this study, we use a combination model of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Fuzzy Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(FDEMATEL) method to rank and valuate risk factors in Power Plant Projects. Firstly, the risk factors of construction projects are figured out through literature review and expert interview in the
second step, the main criteria and sub-criteria are weighted using fuzzy hierarchical analysis is in the third stage, interrelationships among risk factors are calculated by fuzzy DEMATEL. The results of the research identifying causal factors can determine the main risk factors in the powerhouse projects. The populations of the investigation are managers and experts in the field of research. Eleven experts being familiar with construction project management are selected using judgmental sampling. In this study, for the investigation of the distribution of the type of data, Kolmogorov- smirnov test has been used. The prioritization of these factors show that among the main criteria for research, implementation and construction achieved the highest rank, and other factors are important in the next position. Also, among the 53 sub-criteria research, increasing construction costs, the lack of skilled labor, confiscation of property, and land ownership hold the highest priority and are of utmost importance in the standpoint of respondents. The implementation and construction of risk have the first rank., Also, have the highest weight and have the highest interaction with other criteria by DEMATEL in terms of innovation, in most of the topics of risk management this weakness in the present article has been solved.
عنوان نشريه :
مهندسي صنايع و مديريت شريف
عنوان نشريه :
مهندسي صنايع و مديريت شريف
