وضعيت سنجي اميد اجتماعي در ايران (تحليل ثانويه پيمايش وضعيت اجتماعي، فرهنگي و اخلاقي)

The Status of Social Hope in Iran (Secondary Analysis of Social, Cultural and Moral Surveys)

مقاله حاضر حاصل تحليل ثانويه داده‌هاي طرح ملي وضعيت اجتماعي، فرهنگي و اخلاقي ايران است كه در سال 1395 بر روي يك نمونه بزرگ 82500 نفري ساكنان 426 شهر مركز شهرستان‌هاي كشور انجام‌شده است. در اين تحقيق واحد مشاهده فرد است ولي سطح تحليل استان بوده و هدف اصلي نيز ارائه نيم‌رخ و سيماي اميد اجتماعي استان‌هاي كشور است. براي اين منظور علاوه بر توصيف كلي شاخص اميد اجتماعي كشور، رابطه ارزيابي افراد از گذشته، حال و آينده بر اساس يك شاخص تركيبي، در بين استان‌هاي كشور بررسي و مقايسه شده است. نتايج اين مطالعه نشان داد كه بين ارزيابي افراد از زمان حال با ارزيابي از گذشته و آينده رابطه معناداري وجود دارد. همچنين با احتساب شاخص تركيبي اميد اجتماعي مشخص گرديد اولاً درمجموع ميانگين اميد اجتماعي در بين ايرانيان براي ده سال آينده منفي و رو به كاهش است و ثانياً تفاوت و نابرابري در اميد اجتماعي به آينده در بين استان‌ها بيشتر خواهد شد.

The present article is the result of a secondary analysis of the social, cultural and ethical status of Iran. This survey was conducted in 2017 on a large sample of 82500 inhabitants in 426 cities. In this research, the unit of analysis is the individual, but the analysis has been carried out at the provincial level. The main purpose of the article is to present the profile and the image of the social hope of the provinces of the country. According to the results of this article, a clear picture of the state of hope for the future among Iranians can be gained. For this purpose, in addition to a general description of the country's social hope index, according to a combined indicator, the relationship between people's assessment of past, present and future, has been studied and compared in different provinces of the country. The results of this study showed that there is a meaningful relationship between assessing people from the present time and assessing the past and future. Also, according to the combined index of social hope, first, overall, the average social hope among Iranians is negative for the next ten years, and secondly, the difference and inequality in the social hope of the future will increase among the provinces.