كليدواژه :
ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ , ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﯽﻗﺎﻋﺪه , ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ , ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪي , ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﯿﺖ ﺛﺎﻧﻮيه
چكيده فارسي :
ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓ اﻧﻘﻼﺑﯽ ﺧﻮد از ﺳﺎل 1357 در ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﯾﮏ ﻗﺪرت ﺳﺎﻟﻢ ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﻈﺮﻃﻠﺐ، ﺣﻀﻮر ﻣﺴﺘﮑﺒﺮاﻧﮥ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ را از ﺳﭙﻬﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﻮد ﺣﺬف ﻧﻤﻮد و در ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي و ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﮐﺸﺎﻧﺪ. در واﮐﻨﺶ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد اﻧﻘﻼﺑﯽ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻀﻌﯿﻒ و ﺑﺮاﻧﺪازي ﻧﻈﺎم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﯾﺮان در دﺳﺘﻮر ﮐﺎر دوﻟﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﺗﻮاﻓﻖ اﺗﻤﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ اﯾﺮان و ﻗﺪرت ﻫﺎي ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻇﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪ آﻣﺪ ﮐﻪ رواﺑﻂ دو ﮐﺸﻮر رو ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺒﻮدي ﮔﺬاﺷﺘﻪ و زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻫﻤﮑﺎري در دﯾﮕﺮ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ، اﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺮوج دوﻟﺖ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ از ﺑﺮﺟﺎم دوﺑﺎره ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﺎﻻﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻨﺶﻫﺎ ﻣﯿﺎن دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﻮده و واﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻮﺷﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎت ﺗﻬﺮان را ﺑﻪ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ وادارد. درﻫﻤﯿﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ »راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎ و راﻫﮑﻨﺶﻫﺎي اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان از ﭼﻪ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎ و ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ« و راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ آﻧﻬﺎ ﮐﺪام اﺳﺖ؟ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ، اﯾﻦﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ »اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﯾﮏ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ، ﭘﺮوژه ﺑﯽ ﺛﺒﺎتﺳﺎزي و ﻓﺮوﭘﺎﺷﯽ اﯾﺮان را در دو ﺳﻄﺢ داﺧﻠﯽ و ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ دﻧﺒﺎل ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ؛ در ﺳﻄﺢ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺣﻘﺎﻧﯿﺖزداﯾﯽ و اﯾﺠﺎد ﺧﺪﺷﻪ در ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﯿﺖ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﯾﺮان ازﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﺎرﺿﺎﯾﺘﯽ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، ﻣﺤﻮر اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﻼشﻫﺎي دوﻟﺖ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ اﺳﺖ و در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ، اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ درﭘﯽ ﺣﺬف اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ژﺋﻮﭘﻠﯿﺘﯿﮏ و ژﺋﻮاﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ اﯾﺮان در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﺳﺖ. راﻫﮑﺎر اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ، ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎي دروﻧﯽ ﻗﺪرت ازﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪي ﯾﺎ ﻫﻤﺎن ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﯿﺖ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﯾﻪ ﻧﻈﺎم اﺳﺖ.« ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻧﻈﺮي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻘﯽ از »ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ«، »ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﻗﺪرت ﻧﺮم« و »ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺣﻮزه ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﻫﺎﺑﺮﻣﺎس« اﺳﺖ. روش ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ـ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و اﺑﺰار ﮔﺮدآوري دادهﻫﺎ ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي و اﺳﻨﺎدي اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ درراﺳﺘﺎي ﻓﺸﺎر ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮي ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺮاﻧﺪازي، ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﺗﻬﯽﺳﺎزي ﻗﺪرت ﻧﻈﺎم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﯾﺮان از درون و دﻓﻊ ﻧﻔﻮذ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ. ازاﯾﻦ رو، ﻣﯽﺗﻮان اﯾﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ ﮐﺮد ﮐﻪ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪاتِ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺛﺒﺎت ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﯾﺮان ﺟﺪي ﺑﻮده و ﺑﺮاي ﺧﻨﺜﯽﺳﺎزي آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﻼك ﻫﺎي ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪي و ﻣﺸﺮوﻋﯿﺖ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺷﻮد. درﺿﻤﻦ، ﻧﮕﺎرﻧﺪﮔﺎن از روش ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻧﻮﯾﺴﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر آزﻣﻮن ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ )راﻫﮑﻨﺶﻫﺎي ﺑﺮاﻧﺪازي( ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ )آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﻈﺎم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮده اﻧﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Through a revolutionary culture, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a genuine revisionist power, has eliminated the arrogant attendance of the US in the domain of Iranian politics since 1979, and has challenged regional and international issues. In response to this revolutionary attitude, various American governments have resorted to the policy of undermining and overthrowing Iranian political system. Following the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, this idea emerged that the relation between the two countries cooperation in other areas would improve. However, with the advent of Trump administration and his pulling out of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), tensions between the two countries have augmented and Washington is trying to force Tehran to give up. Hence, the main question of this research is: “What are the components and characteristics of the US strategies against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and what strategies should be selected by Iran to stand against them?” This research hypothesizes that America tries to destabilize and overthrow Iran at both internal and external levels through a political war. At the internal level, America makes use of illegitimating Iran’s political power by public dissatisfaction. The United States seeks to destabilize Iran's geopolitical and geo-strategic credibility in the region. The best solution for addressing this challenge is due to reinforcing the internal components of power, that is, its efficiency or the secondary legitimacy of the system.” The theoretical framework of the research contains the theory of political warfare, the theory of soft warfare, and Habermas’s public sphere. This is a descriptive-analytical research which employs library and documentary methods for data collection. The results indicates that the United States is in trying to exerting maximum pressure for overthrowing the Iranian political system by internal devastation and external decrease of its regional influence. Therefore, we can conclude that threats against Iran's political stability are serious, and that the efficiency and legitimacy of the system need to be strengthened to neutralize it. Furthermore, the researchers have employed scenario writing to test the impact of the independent variable (techniques of overthrowing) on the dependent variable (the future of the political system).
The authors also use scenario method to test the effect of independent variable (subversion tactics) on the dependent variable (the future of the political system). Research findings suggest that the United States is seeking to destabilize the Iranian government and the elimination of Iran's regional influence.
