قصد تك فرزندي و تعيين كننده هاي آن در زنان و مردان در شرف ازدواج در تهران

Intention for Single Child among Women and Men on the Threshold of Marriage in Tehran: Levels and Determinants

هدف اين مقاله، بررسي قصد تك فرزندي و تعيين كننده هاي آن، در زنان و مردان در شرف ازدواج ساكن شهر تهران مي باشد. در اين مقاله، داده هاي مرحله اول پيمايش يك مطالعه تركيبي كه در تابستان 1391 انجام شده بود، مورد تجزبه و تحليل قرار گرفت. در اين مرحله، تعداد 871 زن و مرد مراجعه كننده به مراكز مشاوره قبل از ازدواج وابسته به دانشگاه هاي علوم پزشكي در تهران به روش سهميه اي خوشه اي نمونه گيري شدند. قصد تك فرزندي در 46 درصد و دو فرزندي در43/2 درصد موارد گزارش شد. نتايج بيانگر نوعي گذار به سوي كنترل هاي دروني تر بر تصميم باروري در مناطق توسعه يافته شهري مانند تهران بوده، كه منطبق بر نظريه گذار دوم جمعيتي مي باشد. (نسبت شانس)

This paper aims to assess prevalence of intention for having single child and its determinants among new cohorts of marriage. For this paper, the data of the first phase of the survey of a mix method study conducted in 2012 among 871 men and women were analyzed. Sample was selected using stratified cluster sampling from among men and women who attend government based premarital counseling centers in Tehran. The findings revealed that a significant proportion of young men and women (46% of men and women) intended to have single child, while nearly 43% intended for two children. Determinants of intention for single child among men comprised of individualism (OR=1.34), lower concerns on consequences of having single child (OR=0.74), greater gender equality beliefs (OR=4.66), and greater social concerns of childrearing (OR=1.10), while determinants of having single child among women comprised of older age (OR=1.08), greater social concerns of childrearing (OR=1.11), greater individualism (OR=1.31), lower concerns on consequences of having single child (OR=0.60), and greater idealism in child rearing (OR=1.71). These results reflect some sorts of transition toward greater internal controls on fertility decisions in developed urban areas such as Tehran, which is consistent with second transition theory.