ارزيابي واكنش‌هاي پايداري سيستم‌هاي روستايي به مخاطرات خشكسالي با رويكرد تشديد فرايندهاي بادي (روستاهاي منطقۀ كاشان وآران و بيدگل)

Assessment of Rural Systems Sustainability Response to Drought Hazard With Wind Processes Intensification Approach (Villages in Kashan, Iran, and Bidgol District)

يكي از راهبردهاي پايدارسازي محيط، ارزيابي محيط‌هاي انساني آسيب‌پذير در برابر انواع مخاطرات محيطي است. در اين تحقيق به‌منظور بررسي حد تأثير خشكسالي‌هاي اقليمي بر تشديد جابه‌جايي تپه‌هاي ماسه‌اي در بند ريگ كاشان ابتدا با استفاده از شاخص‌هاي خشكسالي (SPI ،PNPI، RIA و Z score) به پايش خشكسالي منطقه در يك دورۀ 30 ساله پرداخته شد و در مرحلۀ بعد با بررسي ميزان ارتباط آن با فراواني توفان‌هاي ماسه از طريق تحليل‌هاي آماري مشخص شد كه همبستگي مثبتي بين وقوع خشكسالي‌هاي اقليمي و مخاطرات ماسه‌هاي روان ديده مي‌شود. در انتها به‌منظور ارزيابي پايداري سيستم‌هاي روستايي، واكنش‌هاي اين مناطق در سطوح تعادل، آستانه‌هاي بحران، مخاطرات و بلايا در برابر توفان‌هاي ماسه‌اي حاصل از خشكسالي بررسي شد. نتايج مطالعه به كمك نقشۀ خطرپذيري هجوم توفان‌هاي ماسه‌اي، بيانگر سطوح مخاطرات در سيستم‌هاي روستايي منطقۀ تحقيق است (روستاهاي آران و بيدگل در سطح مخاطرات و كاشان و ابوزيدآباد در سطح تعادل و آستانۀ بحران)؛ بنابراين مي‌توان گفت اين نتايج بهره‌گيري از دانش بومي به‌منظور رفتارشناسي تپه‌هاي ماسه‌اي و خشكسالي‌هاي شديد در برخي سال‌ها را آشكار كرده است.

The occurrence of intermittent droughts is one of the most prominent features of the climate in Kashan, Aran and Bidgol, Noshabad, and its surrounding areas, which is of particular importance due to the proximity of these areas to sandy hills (Bandarig). In this study, we investigate the relationship between the occurrence of drought and the sand dangers of sandy sandstones in the region, in order to investigate the response of the rural settlements system to drought and sandstorm. Therefore, the sand dunes of the Rig dome, which dominate the urban and rural areas of the study area affected by the drought, are more intense in the stability or instability of the rural settlements system. It is necessary to study the risks of wind erosion, and the relation with that drought phenomenon in the elaboration of this study. Therefore, understanding the relationship between drought, and the dangers of displacement of sand dunes has been done using statistical analyzes and drought indicators. In the next step, the responses of rural systems in different dimensions were studied. Methodology In the methodology process of this study, at first 30-years weather statistics, including climatic elements that are effective in drought occurrence, and calculation of its indicators were obtained from synoptic station in Kashan. Then, using Excel software, the data were sorted, and the drought indices such as precipitation anomaly index, normal rainfall percentage, standardized precipitation index, and Z-Score index were determined to calculate the drought and its type. Then for the changes in the morphology of the sand dunes, the statistics of the fastest winds of the station were collected, arranged, and its annual average was calculated. In the area of ​​zoning of the gravity hazards, the general method based on the spatial analysis method using GIS and its conformance with the evidence of field documentation based on the information value method was prepared by providing the layers needed for the motion of the sand. Emphasizing the value of information was used to delimit the hazard limits. The value model of information in its implementation model is mainly based on a set of data and digital information from land units, wind patterns, geology, land use, slope, direction of gradient, and the choice of factors and factors that influence the instability of the proposal and analysis. Based on this evaluation model, the weight and share of each of the classes and units of the effective parameter in the formation of the morphology of the citadel is as follows: In the final stage, using drought data and marsh movement hazards, completed questionnaires based on the analysis of the stability of rural settlements, and the responses of rural systems. Finally, along with library studies, the sustainability response of rural systems to drought hazards was studied by the intensification of the motion of the sand