تاثير كنترل ريسك قيمتي برنج در شرايط بورس كالا بر الگوي كشت بهينه

The effect of rice price risk control of commodity exchange market on optimum crop pattern A case study of Colestan province

This study aims to determine optimum crop pattern in Iranʹs Golcstan province. Risky (Motad) and common linear programming models were used to determine optimum crop pattern in current situation and also under implementation of agricultural development plans. In addition to determine optimum crop pattern, the effect of price risk control, which is determined by commodity exchange market on paddy lands, was studied.Under current situation along with high levels of risk and low fluctuation of rice price. the paddy cultivation firstly rises, and then with more decrease of price fluctuation, it has dropped. On the other hand, in the low levels ofʹ risk. along whit the decrease of price fluctuation, paddy cultivation has increased. Under implementation of agricultural development plan, with decrease of price fluctuation in Motad models (varied risk levels), paddy cultivation has increased. But high decrease of price fluctuation will reduce paddy cultivation, ultimately. The maximum paddy cultivation was different in various risk levels. It shows that farmers react in different ways by considering risk-taking levels, when facing price fluctuation control issue. In order to determine the range of price volatility, it need to consider some important issues like the level of risk-taking, Government policies, self sufficiency rate, farmersʹ profit and revenue maximization and so on.