ارزيابي تاثير صادرات و بي ثباتي درآمدهاي صادراتي بخشهاي مختلف اقتصادي بر رشد اقتصادي اين بخشها

An evaluation of the impacts of sectoral export growth and export instability on economic growth in different sectors:A case study of Iran, 1968-95

The present paper analyzes the impacts of sectoral export growth and export instability on economic growth. The study used a regression model proposed by Feder (1982) and Khalilian-Haphar (2000), with time series data of the Iranian economy during 1968-95. The results showed that export indices had a meaningful impact on the economic growth in industry and mining and oil sectors, but no significant impacts on agriculture and services sectors. It was also found out that export instability had a negative impact on agriculture, industry and mining sectors. Instability in oil exports, however, stimulated growth in other sectors. The study concluded that commodity and geographical diversification is essential for reducing the negative impacts of export instability on sectoral growth.