عوامل موثر بر توليد گندم در ايران به ترتيب ضريب اهميت (1377-1381)

The key factors in Iranian wheat production in order of their coefficient importance

One of the achievements of Iranʹs agricultural sector in recent years has been self-sufficiency in wheat production -an strategic product which has long been on Iranʹs importing list. We begin with the question of whether the price has had a more important role here or adequate rainfall, as price policies making has been a major focus lately. This study probes into the interplay of the factors operating on wheat yield function by taking into consideration the wheat production of the 28 provinces in Iran during 1998-2002. A panel data approach was adopted in an attempt not to overlook province heterogeneities that have been caused by diverse rainfall, land quality, etc. The results show that the area under cultivation of wheat is the most important factor to enhance the wheat production of the country. Price and rainfall come next, respectively. This accords very well with those who believe in policy making through prices. The results also indicate that "distributed fertilizers" have a significant and negative effect on wheat production in the years of study. This is suggestive of this fact that way we use fertilizers is not based on scientific findings and methods. The conclusion implies that previous policies in this case ought to be changed.