چكيده لاتين :
Introduction Geographical location and communication Zabol border provinces has led to the development of the city, the regional development in the province and the country's relations with the countries of the region. What is required revision in approach and application of new tools in planning. Foresight as a new approach, a process that will lead to sustainable results is planned. Border areas are one of the most sensitive and strategic points of a country. These areas are known as marginal and underdeveloped areas. Although this marginality can be due to its geographical condition, it limits the phenomenon of boundaries to many of its features and capabilities. Features such as distance from the center, geographic isolation, housing instability, cultural differences, external threats, border exchanges, etc. have given special attention to planning, development and security of the country. Avoiding the center, especially in centralized state-based systems, has led to the backwardness of the border regions in terms of comprehensive development and places these areas at the lowest level in terms of economic, social and environmental development indicators. Such concerns have caused the border areas and boundary effects to be taken into account in developmental research, economic, social and ecological.
Methodology In this regard, this research, foresight approach to the analysis of the factors influencing the development of border cities and the influence of these factors on each other and on the future status of the city of Zabol about the study. New research method based on futures, explain and to collect information from documents and survey methods were used. For data analysis, interaction/structure is used by software MICMAC. First, to identify the early variables affecting the future status through the group of experts (Delphi method) and the interactive / structural analysis method for assessing the extent and way of influencing factors and, finally, identifying and ranking the key factors affecting the future status of the development of the border town of Zabul MICMAC application software was used to analyze the data. With the process of questioning, 25 variables are identified according to experts, and at a later stage, the group of experts and experts are asked to judge the views of other involved members. Then, using the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects, the main factors influencing the future of the city were studied.
Results and discussion The results showed that in the first stage, Delphi method, 25 factors were identified. What is the distribution of the variables affecting the future development of the situation in the border town of Zabol you can see, the situation is more unstable system variables are scattered around the shaft diagonal screen. over recent decades Increasing migrations from small villages and towns, and consequently reducing job opportunities and increasing the number of the unemployed on the one hand, and the high potential for the emergence and exacerbation of social anomalies, being in the field of international trade in drugs on the other Among the influential factors that affect the future of Zabul city development. Historical and natural tourism capacities, the central role of Zabul city in Sistan area, high environmental, natural and agricultural capacity as a Multi-factor improve the situation slightly. But the inefficiencies of executive and political executives in relation to border cities and the weak linkage of the rail link with other population centers are exacerbating this.
Conclusion The lack of a long-term vision for the physical structure and spatial organization of the city, the possibility of merging the city with the surrounding villages, the relative existence of industrial expansion areas, natural growth of the population and the split of the Hirmand River are among the regulatory factors that require attention to improve the situation The future of urban development is increasing. In this regard, due to the natural and climatic conditions of the Sistan area, the amount of rainfall and inappropriate regime of precipitation have led to more and more floods and floods, which have a lower role than other factors and have the most impact. The advantages of the transit route of the east of the country, the inefficient collapse of executive and political executives, the weakness of the rail link with the adjacent demographic centers, the natural growth of the city's population, the potential for the emergence and exacerbation of social anomalies, being in the field of international trade in drugs, etc. Future development of the city. So five categories(factors influencing, planar factors, regulatory factors, impressionable factors and independent factors) are identifiable.The highest amount of influence variables tourism potentials, immigration, environmental and natural and agricultural capacity, The central role of the city in Sistan area, transit benefits the East, inefficient executives and political conflict, poor of rail connections with neighboring population centers, The potential occurrence and intensity of social abnormalities,being in the international narcotics trade and the situation will be the future development of the city.
