بررسي فضايي تحقيق و توسعه داخلي و سرريز فناوري بر شدت انرژي در استان هاي ايران

Spatial Analysis of R&D and Technology Spillovers on Energy Intensity in Iran

هدف اصلي اين تحقيق بررسي تاثير عوامل فناوري بر شدت انرژي 29 استان ايران با بهره گيري از مدل فضايي طي دوره 1386 تا 1394است . براي اين منظور از متغيرهاي تحقيق و توسعه بومي ، سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي، صادرات و واردات به عنوان عوامل فناوري موثر استفاده شده است. روش تحقيق اين پژوهش مدل دوربين فضايي(SDM) است كه بعد از انجام آزمون هاي مربوطه تعيين و برآورد شده است. نتايج حاكي از آن بود كه از بين عوامل فناوري ، تحقيق و توسعه داخلي و واردات نقش مهم و غالب در كاهش شدت انرژي داشته است. اما سرمايه گذاري مستقيم خارجي نتوانسته تاثير بسزايي در كاهش شدت مصرف انرژي داشته باشد. متغيرهاي كنترل؛ قيمت انرژي ، ساختار اقتصادي و شهر نشيني نيز تاثيري مطابق ادبيات نظري(به ترتيب مثبت، منفي و منفي) بر شدت مصرف انرژي داشته است. بنابراين با توجه به نتايج توصيه مي شود با افزايش سرمايه گذاري در تحقيق و توسعه و واردات موجبات كاهش شدت انرژي را فراهم آوردند همچنين باتنظيم قيمت انرژي و با سياستگذاري توزيع صنايع در سطح استان در كاهش صنعتي شدن شهرها و كاهش شهرنشيني و از اين طريق كاهش شدت انرژي موثر واقع شوند.

Today, energy is known as one of the main factors for the formation and development of industrial societies an‎d the availability of countries to various energy sources represents their potential for political and economic progress. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of technology factors on the intensity of energy in 29 provinces of Iran (except for Alborz and South Khorasan) using the space model during the period from 2007 to 2015. For this purpose, indigenous R & D variables such as foreign direct investment, exports and imports as effective technology factors, and the variables of economic structure, energy prices and urbanization as control variables have been used. The research method is a spatial model. After performing the relevant tests and determining the type of model, Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) has been designed for review. Three direct and indirect effects and total effects have been estimated. The results of the study in three cases indicate that among the factors of technology, research and development (in both direct, indirect and total terms) and import (in direct and total terms), they have played a major role in reducing energy intensity. But foreign direct investment has not been able to have a significant impact on reducing energy consumption. Exports have also led to an increase in energy intensity. Control variables: energy prices, economic structure, and urbanization have effect according to theoretical literature (positive, negative, and negative respectively) on the reduction of energy consumption. Therefore, according to the results, it is recommended that, by increasing investment in R & D and imports, it would reduce energy intensity, also by adjusting energy prices and by policy of distributing industries and factories in the province, especially in rural areas, in reducing industrialization of cities and Reducing urbanization and thereby reducing energy intensity.