سياست هاي پولي، محدوديت نقدينگي و عملكرد بنگاه هاي صنعتي (مورد صنايع فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران)

در مقاله حاضر، بر اساس داده­هاي 206 بنگاه توليدي فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، به تفكبك اندازه، شدت وابستگي به تسهيلات و رشته فعاليت صنعتي، طي سال­هاي 1385 تا 1394، با استفاده از داده­هاي تركيبي و روش گشتاورهاي تعميم يافته، ابتدا تأثير سياست­هاي پولي بر تسهيلات بانكي و محدوديت نقدينگي بنگاه­ها بررسي شد. سپس، رابطه بين محدوديت نقدينگي و بازده فروش بنگاه­هاي توليدي مورد برآورد قرار گرفت. نتايج نشان مي­دهد كه اثر سياست­هاي پولي بر تسهيلات بانكي بنگاه­ها، در شرايط وفور و تنگناي مالي، نامتقارن است. همچنين با اجراي سياست­هاي پولي انقباضي (انبساطي) دسترسي بنگاه­هاي كوچكتر به تسهيلات بانكي و شاخص عملكرد آن ها، بيش از بنگاه­هاي بزرگتر، كاهش (افزايش) مي­يابد. مقايسه نتايج به تفكيك فعاليت­هاي مختلف صنعتي حاكي از آن است كه در اجراي سياست­ پولي انبساطي بنگاه­هاي خودروسازي بيشترين، و بنگاه­هاي ماشين­آلات و تجهيزات كمترين دسترسي به تسهيلات بانكي را دارند. اين در حالي است كه كاهش محدوديت نقدينگي بر عملكرد بنگاه­هاي كاني غيرفلزي بيشترين و بر بنگاه­هاي خودروسازي كمترين تأثير را دارد.

This paper investigates the determinants of liquidity constraints and corporate performance with emphasis on credit and business cycles based on a sample consists of 206 industrial firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over a 10-year period (2006-2015) by using the GMM and dynamic panel data estimation technique. For this purpose, first the impact of credit cycles on the firms’ access to bank credits is studied. Then the impact of credits on the liquidity constraints of firms is estimated. Finally, the relationship between liquidity constraints and return on sales of firms, as a performance indicator, is considered during business boom and recession. According to the results, firms’ access to bank credit during the credit cycles is asymmetries as in time of credit bust the access to the credit is affected greater than in credit boom. Also, the business cycles influence on relationship between liquidity constraints and firms performance, because the performance is affected more in a recession period than a boom. That means an expansionary credit policy, in order to liquidity constraints reduction during recessions, is effective but it should be accompanied by improvement in macroeconomic conditions. The results based on the firm size and industry type show, that the negative impacts of credit crunch on liquidity and performance of smaller firms are more than larger firms. Also, in the credit boom, the most and least access to bank credit are the automotive and machinery industries firms, respectively. Whereas the liquidity constraints have the most impacts on non-metal mineral industry and the least on the automotive industry.