پديد آورندگان :
يغفوري، حسين دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان , حسيني، علي دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان , حسيني، مريم دانشگاه ياسوج
كليدواژه :
توسعه گردشگري , رويكرد آينده‌نگاري , سناريو نگاري , استان كهگيلويه و بويراحمد
چكيده فارسي :
امروزه، توسعه صنعت گردشگري به‌عنوان يكي از راه‌هاي مهم دستيابي به رشد و توسعه در دنيا محسوب مي‌شود و جوامع مختلف به اين مقوله به‌عنوان يكي از عوامل مهم درآمدزا توجه داشته و بسياري از برنامه‌هاي خود را بر اين اساس پايه‌گذاري كرده‌اند. هدف از اين مقاله تدوين سناريوهاي مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگري استان كهگيلويه و بويراحمد با رويكرد آينده‌نگاري مي‌باشد. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف كاربردي، از حيث روش تركيبي از روش‌هاي اسنادي و پيمايشي در سطح اكتشافي و مبتني بر رويكرد آينده‌نگاري و سناريونويسي است كه با به‌كارگيري تركيبي از مدل‌هاي كمي و كيفي صورت گرفته است. روش جمع‌آوري اطلاعات مطالعات كتابخانه‌اي و ميداني است. جامعه آماري اين پژوهش شامل خبرگان و متخصصان در موضوع مربوطه مي‌باشند كه علاوه بر حوزه تخصصي خود از شناخت كافي نسبت به منطقه موردمطالعه نيز برخوردار هستند. روش نمونه‌گيري در اين پژوهش نيز مبتني بر روش غير احتمالي و از نوع هدفمند است. در اين پژوهش از روش‌هاي تحليل ساختاري، سناريو نگاري و تكنيك دلفي استفاده‌شده است. نرم‌افزارهاي مورداستفاده در اين پژوهش نرم‌افزار Scenario Wizard و MIC MAC مي‌باشد. بر اساس نتايج مدل تحليل ساختاري از ميان 40 شاخص موردبررسي، 12 شاخص به‌عنوان مهم‌ترين شاخص‌هاي تأثيرگذار بر توسعه گردشگري استان كهگيلويه و بويراحمد انتخاب شد. نتايج نهايي هم نشان داد كه 5 سناريو با سازگاري قوي و محتمل پيش روي توسعه گردشگري استان قرار دارد. درمجموع 5 سناريوي قوي پيش روي توسعه گردشگري استان، بيشتر سناريوها در وضعيت مطلوب قرارگرفته‌اند كه اين نشان‌دهنده وضعيت اميدواركننده براي توسعه گردشگري استان است.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction
Tourism is one of the most important sectors of the economy that has been considered as a clean
industry and, while increasing foreign exchange earnings, has helped the national economy to
generate employment and revenue. As a leading industry, it has played an important role in the
development of a range of other industries, notably hospitality, domestic and international
transportation, and handicrafts. Due to the fact that Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad is one of the
provinces with diverse potential and climatic conditions for attracting domestic and foreign
tourists and according to the importance of tourism industry and its incomes, the need to pay
attention to it must be on the agenda. The existence of tourist attractions in the historical,
cultural and natural attractions fields in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province can be the basis
for the growth and development of various economic, environmental, social and improve the
quality of life of the people in the province. However, the tourism industry in Kohgiluyeh and
Boyer-Ahmad province has not received much attention and the available statistics show the
weakness and lack of proper planning and management of this industry in the province.
Therefore, the present study attempts to identify the key factors and major drivers involved in
tourism development in the province and then, by designing the most desirable and feasible
scenarios in the future, provide a flexible policy and appropriate planning to the region. It also
enables the development of tourism industry in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province,
utilizing strategic and forward-looking management approaches and relying on scenario-based
planning models.
Methodology
The type of research based on purpose is applied-developmental and in terms of nature and
method, it is analytical-exploratory. The method of collecting information was based on library
studies (taking notes and documentation) and field studies (questionnaire and interview). The
studied Statistical population included experts and specialists in the relevant subject who were
selected by using of non-probability and purposeful sampling. Structural analysis, scenario
writing and Delphi technique have been used in this study and also Scenario Wizard and MIC
MAC software programs have been applied. In this study, 25 individuals were selected as the
sample of the statistical population of experts. Finally, based on their frequency of their
response in each paired matrix houses, a general questionnaire for structural modeling was
prepared. After the structural analysis model, 25 experts were interviewed. The type of
interview was a semi-structured one in which all respondents were asked similar questions and
the researcher has been responsible for encrypting the answers and classifying them.
Results and Discussion
Based on the results of data analysis via structural analysis model and MIC MAC software, out
of 40 indices, 12 indices were selected as the most important ones that affecting tourism
development of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province.
Among the 12 key indicators affecting the system, there are eight indicators from the planning
and management variable, three indicators of service variable, and one index of the economic
variable group that the results indicated a significant difference between the planning and
management variables with the other studied ones.
Wizard scenario software results also showed that five scenarios with strong adaptation and 541
scenarios with poor adaptation are facing the province tourism development. In total of five
major scenarios for the tourism development of the province, most of the scenarios were in
desirable situation, which indicates a promising condition for the tourism development of
province.
Conclusion
The results of the study showed that five scenarios with strong adaptation and 541 scenarios
with poor adaptation are facing tourism development of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad
province. Out of 5 strong scenarios for tourism development in the province, most of the
scenarios were in desirable condition that indicates a promising situation for tourism
development of the study area. From the 60 possible scenarios in strong ones, 47% (28) had a
desirable situation, 33% (20) had a relatively favorable situation, and 20% had a critical
situation. Among the strong adaptation scenarios, scenario number one included the best
situation for the future of province's tourism development. Scenario two and three were next,
considering both the future situation and the current trend for the province's tourism
development. Scenario four considered most of the current trend for tourism development of the
province and was in a relatively favorable position. The next and final stage belonged to
scenario five, which includes critical situations for the tourism development of the province.
According to the results of the research, the most important strategy for tourism development in
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province can be selected based on competitiveness and programbased strategy.
