جابه جايي مناطقِ اقليمي كوپن گايگردر فلاتِ بلوچستانِ پاكستان و چالشهاي بالقوه آن بر ايران

Shifts in Köppen-Geiger climate zones over Balochistan plateau of Pakistan and its potential challenges to Iran

ﭼﮑﯿﺪه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﺮاي درك ﻣﺸﺨﺼﻪﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﯾﮏ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪيﻫﺎ، ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ اﻧﻮاع ﻣُﺪﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ و ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺷﺒﺎﻫﺖﻫﺎ و ﺗﻤﺎﯾﺰ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي در اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪات ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ، ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺟﺎﺑﻪﺟﺎﯾﯽ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﺮزﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﻓﻼت ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن و اﺛﺮات ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮه آن ﺑﺮ اﯾﺮان ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ روش ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﮐﻮﭘﻦ-ﮔﺎﯾﮕﺮ اﻧﺠﺎم ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ در دوره 1900-2017 از ﭘﺎﯾﮕﺎه داده داﻧﺸﮕﺎه دﻻور اﺳﺎس اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ را ﺷﮑﻞ ﻣﯽدﻫﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪي، ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺣﺎﮐﻤﯿﺖ اﻗﻠﯿﻢﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﮔﺮم و ﺳﺮد در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﮔﺴﺘﺮه اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﮔﺮم، ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ و ﻏﺮﺑﯽ اﺳﺖ. در ﺣﺎﻟﯽﮐﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺮد، در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ و ﻏﺮﺑﯽ ﻧﻤﻮد دارد. در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي -55 ﺑﻪ ﺣﺪود55-65اﺧﯿﺮ، داﻣﻨﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺮد ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﻣﺤﺴﻮس ﮐﺎﻫﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ و از ﺣﺪود 50 درﺻﺪ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ، داﻣﻨﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﮔﺮم در ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ و از ﺣﺪود 35-45 ﺑﻪ ﺣﺪود 45-50 درﺻﺪ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ؛ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، داﻣﻨﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﮔﺮم در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﺤﺪود ﺷﺪن اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺮد ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ در آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﺪاوم داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺳﺒﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه در ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي ﻫﻢﺟﻮار ﺑﺎ اﯾﺮان ﺷﺪه و ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﻢ از ﻗﺒﯿﻞ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮتﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ، اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻣﺮز و ﺳﻼﻣﺖ را در ﺑﺮداﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ در اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺮاﻧﻪ ﺑﺮاي روﯾﺎروﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺛﺮات و ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺮ روي ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺮزي اﯾﺮان اﯾﻔﺎ ﮐﻨﺪ.

Climate classification systems(CCSs) are important tools for understanding the specific characteristics of a region's climate. The main purpose of these classifications is to determine the climate types and to find their similarities, differences and variability. Climate zones are threatened by global warming and climate change. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possible shifts of climate zones over the Balochistan plateau of Pakistan and its potential challenges to Iran based on the improved Koppen-Geiger CCSs. The data includes average monthly precipitation and temperature of the Delaware university dataset for the 1990-2017 periods. The results show the main climate with two subgroups in the study area. These climates include a hot desert climate(BWh) and a cold desert climate(BWk). The hot desert climate is dominated in southern and western and the cold desert climate in northern and western regions.In recent decades, the increasing range of hot desert climate limited the cold desert climate. The range of the cold desert climate has declined sharply, reaching from about 55-65 to about 50-55 percent. In contrast, the range of hot desert climate increased in response to these conditions, reaching from about 35-45 to about 45-50 percent.Therefore, it is expected that the zones of the hot desert climate will increase rapidly in the future. These conditions will add to environmental quality and resource depletion problems especially in border areas with Iran and can pose important challenges such as climate migration, border security, and health. The results of this research can play a significant role in adopting forward-looking policies to address the impacts and challenges of climate change on the border regions of Iran.