چكيده لاتين :
Introduction
Nowadays, cities have been widely exposed to the various types of the human hazards and this
instability has resulted in their vulnerability. Therefore, in order to make cities resilient, it is
necessary to identify these hazards and plan to reduce them and prevent their occurrence. The
city of Ardebil is not an exception in this regard and it has been exposed to a variety of these
human hazards. At first glance, it is assumed that Ardabil encounters many hazards resulted
from the high divorce rate, environmental issues and different types of pollution,
unemployment, street accidents, crime rate, cancer, located near the border and the possibility of
security issues, the possibility of tribal ethnic tensions between the citizens of the provincial
capital with other citizens. With regard to these issues, the purpose of this study is to identify
the most important human hazards which are deciding factors in Ardabil's vulnerability. This
identification can provide urban managers with the basis on which they can make policy to
make the city more resilient. Considering the variables and the purpose, this study hypothesized
that: There is a significant relationship between human hazards and the vulnerability of the city.
Methodology
This study is an applied and experimental one in terms of its purpose. In addition, considering
the combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods, it is mixed-method and
exploratory in nature. The required data was collected through documentary and field methods
(through both interviews and questionnaires). At first, the primary risks were identified by
interviewing the city’s 10 experts (qualitative part). Then, with taking into account the identified
hazards, the relevant questionnaire was designed and used (quantitative part).
The participants of this study were the experts with related fields and the professors. According
to the rules of research models and the experts available in the city, 200 participants completed
the questionnaire purposefully. The data was analyzed by applying parametric statistical
methods. Moreover, in order to analyze the data and to test the hypotheses and the conceptual
model, the variance-based structural equation was used (by using partial least squares). To test
the validity of the used model, the normality and chi-square tests or Bartlett's sphericity were
used. The assumption of the normality of the data was tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.
Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Cronbach's alpha test and combined ratio were also applied to
estimate the reliability. Furthermore, in order to measure the convergent & discriminate validity,
average variance extracted and Chen test were used, respectively. Also, the hypotheses (and the
path's Coefficient Alpha and t-statistic) was tested by PLS and boot Astarp algorithms. In this
regard, we used Excel, SPSS and smart- pls software.
Results and Discussion
The results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicate that the data are normally distributed and
the use of parametric statistical methods is acceptable. Moreover, according to Chi-square and
Bartlett's test results, there is an acceptable linear relationship between the variables.
The average variance extracted for the convergent validity and Chen test for discriminate
validity show that variables has high level of validity. Also, the results of the Confirmatory
Factor Analysis, Cronbach's alpha test, and combined ratio report that there are acceptable
reliability between the variables in the present study.
Finally, all of 11 variables (human hazards) account for the city of Ardabil’s vulnerability
(0/781). The high values of t-statistic and path’s coefficient Alpha are related to economic risk
factors, diseases and street accidents, respectively. In contrast, fire and pollution achieve the
lowest values of t-statistic and path's coefficient Alpha. In addition, the results indicate that all
of the human hazards discussed in this study (except fire) have significant positive effects on
Ardabil’s vulnerability. Finally, the results report that the economic issues, diseases, street
accidents, crime, management issues, divorce, flooding streets, cultural issues, issues of
nutrition, and pollution are the main human hazards of Ardabil.
Conclusion
With regard to research findings and due to the fact that the city is an organization in itself and
the urban hazards are linked together, it can be concluded that the unemployment can lead to
nutritional problems and even to diseases and management problems. The management
problems can result in crime, accidents, flooding streets, and street accidents (caused by the
poor urbanism). The crime increases divorce rate and vice versa. Finally, the crime and divorce
are derived from cultural issues. Therefore, it can be concluded that mentioned hazards can
cause the city vulnerability. Especially, unemployment, the problem of cancer, and the
management problems are real concerns in Ardebil. Therefore, his study makes it clear for
managers that they can not only reduce the vulnerability of the city, but also they can make the
city resilient by identification and planning of the human hazards and the variables explained
them.
