تبيين الگوي فضايي شاخصهاي شكوفايي شهري در ايران رويكردي نوين در مطالعه پايداري كلان شهرها (مطالعه موردي كلان شهر تهران)

Explaining Spatial Pattern of Urban Flourishing Indicators in Iran New Approach to Metropolitan Sustainability Study (A Case Study of Tehran Metropolis)

شكوفايي شهرها نخستين بار در گزارش برنامه اسكان بشر سازمان ملل (UN-Habitat)، در سال 2013، تحت عنوان City Prosperity Index"" ارائه‌ شده است. اين گزارش پاسخي به بحرانهاي چند بعدي پيش‌آمده در دهه هاي اخير در جهان است. در گزارش ارائه ‌شده، اسكان بشر به تعريف شكوفايي شهري و ارائه شاخص هايي چند بعدي از شكوفايي شهري پرداخته است. به ‌واقع به‌جاي اندازه گيري عوامل اقتصادي به‌صورت تك ‌بعدي از قبيل ميزان توليد و درآمد، نگرش جديد به ارزيابي زيرساختها، برابري، پايداري و كيفيت زندگي مي پردازد. هر يك از ابعاد سهم مهمي در افزايش درك از شكوفايي شهري دارند. شهرهاي ايران نيز در طول دهه هاي اخير با مسئله رشد شتابان شهري و توسعه نامتوازن مواجه بوده اند كه ضرورتا به توسعه ي شهري ختم نشده است. در اين ميان شاخص شكوفايي بتواند به سنجش اين توسعه و يافتن كمبودها پرداخته و با طرح راهكارهايي در رفع اين كمبودها كمك نمايد. از طرفي با توجه به اينكه هر جامعه اي برخاسته از ويژگي ها، باورها و فرهنگ منحصر به فرد خود مي باشد، لذا توسعه در هر جامعه اي متناسب با ويژگيهاي آن جامعه متفاوت از ديگري خواهد بود. با اين اوصاف نگارندگان به بازنگري، معيارها و شاخص ها و سنجهاي شكوفايي در راستاي تبيين الگو و تكميل اين ساختار در كلانشهر تهران يا به عبارت كلي بومي در فرهنگ شهرنشيني ايران پرداخته و در اين ساختار توجه اصلي مقاله ساختارهاي كلان شهرها به خصوص شهر تهران ميباشد. روش تحقيق از نوع تحليلي است و بر مبناي آمار فضايي است و با توجه به ماهيت مكاني داده ها و وابستگي فضايي اين داده ها براي تجزيه و تحليل اطلاعات از انواع توانمندي هاي سيستم اطلاعات جغرافيايي و تحليل هاي آمار فضايي و تكنيك هاي مرتبط از قبيل شاخص جهاني موران، شاخص محلي موران انسلين، تحليل لكه هاي داغ (Hot Spot) با بهره گيري از ابزار نرم افزارهاي Geoda ،ArcGIS و متلب استفاده شد.

Introduction The prosperity of cities was first presented in UN-Habitat report, 2013, as City Prosperity Index. The report is a response to the multi-dimensional crises occurred in the recent decades in the world. This report defined urban prosperity and examined some multi-dimensional indices for that. Instead of evaluation of the one-dimensional economic factors such as production and income, this report has a new approach to evaluation of infrastructures, equality, sustainability, and quality of life. Each dimension contributes to having a better understanding of the urban prosperity. The cities in Iran are also faced with rapid urban growth and unbalanced urban development. The prosperity index can help assess the development and find shortages to devise solutions. Given that any society is consisted of the unique cultures, believes, and characteristics of that society, development in any society appropriate to its own characteristics is different from any other societies. This research attempts to review the criteria and indices of the urban prosperity to explain the pattern in Tehran City and also develop the structure for this city. The purpose of this study also is to tailor the indices to urbanization condition in Iran, particularly metropolis of Tehran. Methodology The methodology in this present study is based on analytical research method using spatial statistics and spatial dependencies of the data. We have used geostatistical analyses and techniques such as global index of Moran, local index of Moran Anselin, and Hot Spot analysis. The analyses have been conducted by ArcGIS and Geoda applications. Result and Discussion The results of this study have indicated that based on an explorative modeling the spatial distribution of prosperity for Tehran City is following a random pattern. The results of the explorative analysis and T-test in 22 regions of Tehran do not reveal any specified pattern and trend of prosperity. There is also a chaos in spatial patterns of the city. Conclusion The flourishing spatial distribution pattern in Tehran follows a stochastic pattern with respect to exploratory modeling. In this regard, the results of exploratory analysis in the twenty-two districts of Tehran and the final results of the homogeneous zoning of prosperity conducted in the 22 districts of Tehran in order to study the spatial trend of urban prosperity indicators and according to the diagrams and maps of the previous stage, could not model or trend. A specific situation of urban prosperity in the city of Tehran was identified. There is a disorder in the spatial display. The results show irregularity and irregular distribution of productivity dimensions in regions 9, 12, 13, 19, 21, and 22. an‎d only regions one, three, and six have a logical order, and the rest have an irregular and random distribution. In the environmental sustainability index, region 22 has a logical and regular distribution to some extent, and other regions are irregular and random. In the infrastructure index, it is indicated that the central regions are in better order than the marginal regions, but in general, the infrastructure pattern is completely random. In the social justice index, region six has a logical order, but other areas of Tehran are completely random and lack a pattern of order. The quality of life index does not show any special order in Tehran and this pattern is completely random. Based on the combination of the results of the prosperity indicators of Tehran, only parts of regions 2, 1, 4 and 6 have a relative cluster pattern, and in general, considering the city of Tehran as a metropolis of the region. Has a cluster pattern of urban flourishing.