اﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم در اﯾﺮان

The Effect of Intra Industry Trade on Inflation Rate in Iran

ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪي ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮرم اﯾﺮان ﻃﯽ دورهي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1992-2017 ﻣﯿﻼدي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﮔﺮﭼﻪ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺳﻮم ﺗﺠﺎرت، اﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎرت ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮرم ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎٌ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺗﻠﻘﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد وﻟﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﺗﺠﺎرت )NTT( 2 در اﯾﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺤﺪود و ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﺣﺎل، ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ از ﻃﺮق ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺻﺮﻓﻪﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﻣﻘﯿﺎس و ﺗﻤﺎﯾﺰ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل، ﺗﻮرم را ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮآورد رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن اﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻼﯾﻢ ﺑﺮاي اﯾﺮان ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺳﻪ رژﯾﻤﯽ اﺛﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﮐﺎﻫﻨﺪه و ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم دارد. اﯾﻦ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﮐﺮوﮔﻤﻦ ﺳﺎزﮔﺎر اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ اﺛﺮ ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﺑﻮده و ﺣﻀﻮر اﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮرم ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه، ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺻﻼح ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺗﺠﺎرت ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔﻊ ﺗﺠﺎرت درونﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺗﺠﺎرت ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺰﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻧﺴﺒﯽ و رﻗﺎﺑﺘﯽ، ﺑﺘﻮان ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم را ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﺮد.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of intra-industry trade on inflation for Iran during the period 1992-2017. Although in the framework of traditional trade theories, the effect of foreign trade on inflation is generally considered negative, studies over the topic based on new trade theories (NTT) are little and with no definite results. However, intra-industry trade seems to be able to moderate inflation through several ways, such as economies of scale and product differentiation. The results of estimate a smooth transition regression for Iran show that intra-industry trade in the form of a three-regime structure has a negative and significant negative effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with the Krugman models. Also, the results of the present study show that the effect of intra-industry trade on inflation rate has been non-linear and its presence accompanied with other factors has moderated the inflation. Based on the results, the policy recommendation of this research is to reform the structure of foreign trade in favor of intra-industry trade trade in such a way that while developing foreign trade based on comparative and competitive advantages, it is possible to adjust the inflation rate.