بررسي پيامدهاي مكاني و فضايي خشكسالي اقليمي در مناطق روستايي شهرستان كازرون

The Study of Spatial Effects of Climatic Drought on Rural Regions of Kaziroon

ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﭘﺪﯾﺪهاي اﺟﺘﻨﺎب ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ از دﯾﺮﺑﺎز ﮔﺮﯾﺒﺎنﮔﯿﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﺎزرون ﺑﻮده و ﺧﺴﺎرات زﯾﺎدي را ﺑﺮاي روﺳﺘﺎﺋﯿﺎن در ﭘﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪود ﺗﺮدﯾﺪ، ﻧﺨﺴﺘﯿﻦ ﮔﺎم ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ آﺛﺎر زﯾﺎنﺑﺎر ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ، ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ و درك ﻋﻤﯿﻖ اﺛﺮات آن ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳـﺎس، ﻫـﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ و ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮐـﺎ زرون در ﺑـﺎزة زﻣـﺎﻧﯽ 1397-1375 ﺻﻮرتﺑﻨﺪي ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺎت ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي )DR) ،(SPI( و )PNPI( اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻧﻮع ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار SPSS، ﺑـﻪ ﺗﻌﯿـﯿﻦ راﺑﻄـﻪ ﺑـﯿﻦ ﻣﻘـﺪار ﺑـﺎر ش و ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﮔﻨﺪم و ﺣﺮﮐﺎت ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ و ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻮﻟﯿـﺪ ﮔﻨـﺪم راﺑﻄـﻪ ﻣﻌﻨـﯽ دار و ﻣﺜﺒﺘـﯽ ﺑﺮﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺑﻄﻮري ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ، ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ 25/5 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد در ﻫﮑﺘﺎر ﭘﺪﯾﺪ آﻣـﺪه، ﮐـﻪ در ﻧﻬﺎﯾـﺖ ﺑـﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ درآﻣﺪ روﺳﺘﺎﺋﯿﺎن و ﻋﺪم ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﯽاﻧﺠﺎﻣﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از آزﻣﻮن ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﭘﯿﺮﺳﻮن ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯿـﺰان ﺑﺎرش و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻫﺎي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ 0/763 - و ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﻄﺎي ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از )0/010( راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﯽ داري وﺟﻮد دارد، ﺑﻄﻮري ﮐه ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻫﺎي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺧﻮد ﺗﺎﮐﻨﻮن ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺧﺎﻟﯽ از ﺳﮑﻨﻪ ﺷﺪن 59 روﺳﺘﺎ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ

Drought as an unavoidable natural disaster has had bad effects lots of problems in Iranian villages since ancient times. Undoubtedly, understanding the deep aspects and effects of this phenomenon is concerned as the first step to overcome it. Here the regional drought and its spatial effects on villages of Iran are considered through SPI, DR, PNPI indices to calculate these regional effects. In This applied research the relationship between precipitation and crop production and population movement is studied using SPSS software analytically. The results showed that decreasing crop production to the extent of 21.5 K.gr/ha has affected on life levels of rural population negatively. This situation has had financial losses to the extent of 9156603629 Rials in these areas. Also, the out coming results through Pierson regression tests has showed that there is a significant relationship between precipitation levels and the migrations of rural families to the other regions ( p= 0.010). On the base of this study it has been showed that drought has caused rural migrations and remained 16 abandoned.