شبيه سازي پيامد تغيير اقليم بر نياز گرمايشي استان فارس با ريزمقياس نمايي برون داد مدل هاي گردش جوي

Simulation consequences of climate change on heating needs in Fars province by downscaling output of atmospheric circulation models

اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ روزاﻓﺰون ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي اﻧﺮژي در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻓﺮاﮔﯿﺮ اﻧﺮژي ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ، اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮐﻤﯽ ﻧﯿﺎز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺸﯽ را در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﺿﺮوري ﻣﯽﺳﺎزد. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﺧﺎﻃﺮ ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ واﮐﺎوي ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ- زﻣﺎﻧﯽ درﺟﻪ روزﻫﺎي ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ و ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻓﺎرس در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎي ﮔﺮدش ﮐﻠﯽ ﺟﻮ EH5OM ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪل رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻧﻤﺎﯾﯽ، دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دﻣﺎي روزاﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ 0/27 × 0/27 درﺟﻪ ﻃﻮل و ﻋﺮض ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺣﺪوداً ﻧﻘﺎﻃﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺑﻌﺎد 30 × 30 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ اﺳﺘﺎن را ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﻣﯽدﻫﻨﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. آﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ دﻣﺎﯾﯽ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ آزﻣﻮن ﺻﺪك 10 و 90 درﺻﺪ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ و اﯾﻦ آﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﯾﺎﺧﺘﻪﻫﺎ )158 ﯾﺎﺧﺘﻪ( ﺗﻌﻤﯿﻢ داده ﺷﺪ. ﺳﺮاﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ درﺟﻪ روز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ در ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺴﯽ ﺑﻪ اﺑﻌﺎد 13140 × 12 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺎ درﺟﻪ روز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ و ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ و راﺑﻄﻪ آن ﺑﺎ ارﺗﻔﺎع، ﻋﺮض و ﻃﻮل ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ اﺳﺘﺎن در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي آﺑﺎده و اﻗﻠﯿﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ آن را ﻣﺎه ژاﻧﻮﯾﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 600 درﺟﻪ روز اﺳﺖ. ﮐﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻧﯿﺎز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﻧﯿﺰ در ﻧﻮار ﺟﻨﻮب در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﻻﻣﺮد و ﻣﻬﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ درﺟﻪ روز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ در درﺟﻪ اول ﺑﺎ ارﺗﻔﺎع و ﻋﺮض ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ و ﻧﻘﺶ ﻃﻮل ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ در ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات درﺟﻪ روز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﻧﺎﭼﯿﺰ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﮐﻪ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻗﻮي و ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﺎن ارﺗﻔﺎع و درﺟﻪ روز ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ در دﺳﺘﮑﻢ ﻫﻔﺖ ﻣﺎه ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﺑﺮﺟﺎﺳﺖ. ﮐﻪ ﻣﺎه ﻧﻮاﻣﺒﺮ ﺑﺎ 0/879 درﺻﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﯽداري 0/01 و ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ 0/772 از ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ.

Increasing demand for energy in the widespread energy resource depletion along with the consequences of global warming, the importance of quantitative heating needs in the coming decades makes it essential. To get this aim, simulated daily temperature data were drawn from general circulation of the atmosphere database EH5OM. Then, through Downscaling model, average data of daily temperature with separation 0/27˟0/27 geographical length and width degrees that covered approximately dimensions with 30˟30 kilometers of province land were down scaled in a period of time (2015-2050). After that, Temperature threshold of each cell was counted through percentile, 10 and 90, and this threshold was extended to some cells (158 cells). Finally, monthly average of heating day degree was counted in a matrix with dimensions of 12˟13140. According to simulated data of models, a place with heating day in a monthly and yearly temporal frame was drawn and its relationship with geographical height, width and length was investigated. The result showed that in the future decades, especially in February and May, Northern half of province heating need will have a great reduction in comparison to previous periods which leads to get warmer winter and spring in northern half of province. The most heating need in both periods is in northern areas in Abadeh and Eghlid in which its highest is in January with the amount of 600 degrees per day. Furthermore, the least changes belong to fall that approximately in each period with regard to the range of heating has the same amount. Analyses also showed that degree of heating day at least in seven months is stable in the future. November month has the highest amount of correlation with meaningful factor of 0.01.