پهنه بندي آگروكليمايي كشت زعفران در استان همدان رهيافتي براي تغيير الگوي كشت

Agro-climate Zoning of Saffron Cultivation in Hamedan Province: An Approach to Change the Pattern of Cultivation

اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ، ﺷﻮري ﺧﺎك، اﻓﺖ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﻔﺮه ﻫﺎي آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺎي ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽ ﻣﺪت، ﺑﺎزﻧﮕﺮي در اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﺎن زراﻋﯽ و ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻨﯽ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺳﺎزﮔﺎر ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ را ﺑﻪ اﻣﺮي اﺟﺘﻨﺎب ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺪل ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس، ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﻣﮑﺎن ﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺪ ﮐﺸﺖ زﻋﻔﺮان و ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﻣﺒﻨﺎي روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ )AHP( در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ARC/GIS10.3 ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ و ﺳﭙﺲ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ و داده ﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه ﺷﺎﻣﻞ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ زﻣﯿﻦ و ﺧﺎك و داده ﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻃﻮل دورة آﻣﺎري ﻣﺸﺘﺮك 30ﺳﺎﻟﻪ )1364- 1394( از اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎي ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ و ﮐﻠﯿﻤﺎﺗﻮﻟﻮژي ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﻤﺪان ﮔﺮدآوري ﺷﺪ؛ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻫﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل AHP، ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ وزن دﻫﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ، اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Expert choice وارد و ﺧﻮﺷﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي، ارزش ﮔﺬاري ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎ و ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﻧﺠﺎم و درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﻻﯾﮥ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد 56/59 درﺻﺪ از اراﺿﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﻤﺪان ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺎﺷﺖ زﻋﻔﺮان در ﮐﻼس ﻫﺎي ﮐﺎﻣﻼً ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ و ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ، 27/7 درﺻﺪ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎً ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ و 15/69 درﺻﺪ در ﮐﻼس ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ. دﺷﺖ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺎﻣﻼً ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﮐﺎﺷﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل زﻋﻔﺮان ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮐﺒﻮدرآﻫﻨﮓ، ﻫﻤﺪان و ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از رزن اﺳﺖ و اﺳﺪآﺑﺎد، ﺗﻮﯾﺴﺮﮐﺎن و ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از ﻣﻼﯾﺮ و ﻧﻬﺎوﻧﺪ در ﮐﻼس ﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﻘﺸﮥ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ ﻫﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان از ﺳﻤﺖ ﺟﻨﻮب، ﺟﻨﻮب ﻏﺮب و ﺟﻨﻮب ﺷﺮق ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺷﻤﺎل اﺳﺘﺎن ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﺮوﯾﻢ، ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان اﺳﺘﻌﺪاد ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺸﺖ زﻋﻔﺮان اﻓﺰوده ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد و اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺗﺎ ﺟﺎﯾﯽ اداﻣﻪ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ وﺟﻮد ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ، ﮐﺸﺖ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل ﺗﻮﺟﯿﻪ ﭘﺬﯾﺮﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ.

Increasing temperature, decreasing rainfall, soil salinity, a severe decline in groundwater aquifers, prolonged droughts, revising the crop cultivation pattern, and replacing products that are compatible with the current conditions have become inevitable. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to locate areas susceptible to cultivating saffron and taking into account the ecological needs of this product. In this regard, based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis method in the ARC/GIS10.3 software environment, modeling was performed and then the information was spatially analyzed. The parameters and data used included earth and soil data and climatic data with the duration of a 30-year common statistical period (1985-1015) were collected from synoptic and climatological stations in different regions of Hamedan province. Then, based on the importance of each parameter, using the AHP model, the weight of the criteria was measured at the study area level. For spatial analysis, the information was entered into the Expert Choice Software, and clustering, criterion evaluation, and data integration were performed and finally, the final layer was produced. The results showed that 56.56% of the land in Hamedan Province was used for saffron cultivation in perfectly suitable and suitable classes, 27.7% was in relatively suitable conditions, and 15.69% was in unsuitable classes. Plains suitable for planting saffron included Kaboudar Ahang, Hamedan, and part of Razan. an‎d Asadabad, Tuyserkan, and parts of Malayer and Nahavand were in inappropriate classes. According to the final map, as we move from the south, southwest, and southeast to the north of the province, the potential of the regions for saffron cultivation will increase and this situation will continue until the cultivation of this crop is more justifiable due to ecological factors.