تبيين عوامل شناختي تأثيرگذار بر تمايل خانوارهاي روستايي به زيست‌پذيري در شرايط خشكسالي در شهرستان هنديجان

Explaining Cognitive Factors Influencing Farmers' Intention towards Livability in Drought Conditions in Hendijan County

خانوارهاي روستايي شهرستان هنديجان مانند ديگر روستاييان استان خوزستان در چند سال اخير به دليل خشكسالي و افزايش گردوغبار با چالش هاي زيادي مواجه شده اند و سطح زيست پذيري آنان به شدت كاهش يافته است. در اين زمينه، پژوهش حاضر با هدف كلي تبيين عوامل شناختي تاثيرگذار بر تمايل خانوارهاي روستايي شهرستان هنديجان به زيست پذيري در شرايط خشكسالي انجام شد. جامعه آماري پژوهش، همه خانوارهاي روستايي شهرستان هنديجان واقع در استان خوزستان با تعداد كل 1906 خانوار است. با استفاده از جدول كرجسي و مورگان[1]، 230 نفر از آنها به روش نمونه گيري طبقه اي تصادفي با انتساب متناسب انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوري اطلاعات، پرسش نامه اي استاندارد است كه روايي آن با پانل متخصصان و روايي سازه و پايايي آن با ضريب آلفاي كرونباخ و پايايي تركيبي تاييد شد. در اين پژوهش نظريه رفتار برنامه ريزي، مبناي كار قرار گرفت. نتايج نشان داد متغيرهاي نگرش، هنجار اخلاقي، دانش سازگاري، خودكارآمدگي و حس تعلق مكاني تاثير مثبت و معنا داري بر تمايل به زيست پذيري خانوارهاي روستايي در شرايط خشكسالي دارند؛ اين در حالي است كه متغير هويت فردي و رفتار درك شده اثر معنا داري بر تمايل به زيست پذيري خانوارهاي روستايي ندارد. گفتني است متغيرهاي مستقل84/5 درصد از واريانس متغير وابسته پژوهش (تمايل به زيست پذيري) را تبيين كرده اند. در اين زمينه با توجه به نتايج پژوهش پيشنهاد مي شود با بهبود دانش سازگاري و خودكارآمدي خانوارهاي روستايي، سطح زيست پذيري آنان در شرايط خشكسالي بهبود يابد.

Today, climate changes are the most serious challenges facing humans. The climate change refers to any change in the climate over time which is primarily due to natural changes or human activities. Drought is one of the most dangerous climate changes affecting a wide range of climates and ecosystems and the affected geographical areas have increased sharply in the last four decades. In this regard, the outlook for the drought situation in Iran over the next 30 years shows that drought in the country will increase and during 2025, 2032, 2035, and 2039 most parts of the country will face a severe drought. Meanwhile, the drought situation in 2039 will be much more critical. This is because most of our country is in the realm of arid and semi-arid climates of the world. Iran alone has more severe arid, arid, and semi-arid areas than most of the Europe. During the last 40 years, 27 different drought phenomena have occurred in the country. Therefore, some experts believe that drought is a climatic reality in Iran. The location of more than 50% of Iran's area in arid and low water regions causes drought periods and its effects to overcome wet periods. Areas that are climatically arid and semi-arid are prone to the effects of drought. In this regard, the most vulnerable class of the society, which are farmers, are more severely affected by this natural disaster, because farmers' reliance on dry farming can increase vulnerability and affect the lives of farmers. Therefore, in case of drought, it is necessary to review the living conditions of rural households and identify factors affecting them. Rural households in Hindijan County, like other rural areas in Khuzestan province, have faced many challenges in recent years due to drought and increasing dust, and their living standards have dramatically decreased. In this regard, the present study was conducted with the general aim of explaining the cognitive factors affecting farmers’ tendency towards livability in drought conditions. The statistical population of the study consisted of all rural households in Hendijan County located in Khuzestan province, the total number of which was 1906 households. By using Krejcie and Morgan Table, 230 of them were selected by the stratified sampling method with a proportional assignment. The data collection tool was a standard questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts. Its construct validity and reliability were confirmed by Cronbach's alpha and combined reliability. In this study, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was used as the basis. The results showed that attitude, moral norms, adaptation knowledge, self-efficacy, and sense of belonging had a positive and significant effect on the tendency of rural households to live in drought conditions. While individual identity and perceived behavioral variables did not have a significant effect on the intention of rural households towards livability. It should be noted that the independent variables accounted for 84.5% of the variance of the dependent variable (intention of rural households to livability). In this regard, according to the results of the research, it is suggested that by improving the knowledge of adaptability and self-efficacy of rural households, they can improve their livability in drought conditions.