تقاضاي صادرات در اقتصاد ايران با رويكرد نوين

Analysis of Demand of Exports in Iranian Economy with a New Approach

This paper studies supply and demand of exports in the Iranian economy. The results demonstrate that the exports developments of the Iranian economy could be explained by standard theories. Consequences of the cumulative structural functions and the cumulative space indicate that exports demand is not significant which probably reflects high elasticity of Iranʹs exports prices in the international markets. Hence, Iran is not considered a major player in setting prices of most of its exports items. Non - oil exports fluctuations are compatible with exportable surplus and affect supply relative prices of exports with elasticity close to one. The importances of real exchange rate in the exports fluctuations are times higher than other exchange rates indices and exports prices Therefore, the exchange rate fulctuations would only have decisive effects on non-oil export only when it could affect the prices of tradable goods to non- tradable goods prices. The pattern of non-oil exports response to promotional measures show that rises in exports are not derived from utility growth. Relative prices, production capacity and, in lesser extent, exchange rate variance, affect exports supply.