ارزيابي و تعيين ظرفيت هاي تجاري دو جانبه ايران با كشورهاي عضو موافقتنامه نظام تجارت ترجيحي سازمان كنفرانس اسلامي

Evaluation of Bilateral Trade Potentials Between Iran And TPSIOIC Member States (By Means of RCA and Cosine Index)

The framework agreement on the Trade Preferential System (TPS) among Islamic countries, - which covers products originating in member countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) - has entered into force following its ratification by ten member states, and trade negotiations among members have started. A total of I2 members signed and ratified the TPS-OIC namely Cameroon, Egypt, Guinea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Senegal, Tunisia, Turkey and Uganda in 2002. In this paper, the products and goods in which each country has a comparative advantage are determined based on RCA index at 6-digit level of HS Code during 1997-2001. The ʹSimple Potentialʹ method is then used to identify bilateral trade potentials between member countries and Iran. The findings of the study demonstrate that Iranʹs non-oil export to member countries accounts for 204 million dollars on average during the period, while it may be increased up to 400 million dollars. On the other hand, Iranʹs import from TPS members accounts for 409 million dollars while it also can be increased up to 1 billion dollars, and implies a 60 percent un-used capacity. Thus, around 60 percent of trade potential between Iran and these countries has not been fulfilled yet. Moreover, based on RCA, the major exporting (importing) products of Iran have been identified and compared with each memberʹs importing (exporting) goods. Strong emphasis should be made on these items during the process of negotiations based on the principles of mutuality of advantages.