تاثير تنوع سازي صادرات از كالاهاي اوليه و كشاورزي به محصولات صنعتي بر روند بلندمدت رابطه مبادله درايران

Diversification into Manufactured Exports and Long-Run Trends in Terms of Trade in Iran

Using auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to take care of the "spurious problem", this paper examines terms of trade implications of diversification into manufactured exports in the Iranian economy. More specifically, it studies the impact of export diversification on net barter terms of trade (NBTT) and income terms of trade ([NTT) of manufactured and non-oil export sectors in Iran. Moreover, it examines the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis related to terms of trade deterioration of primary commodity and agricultural product exports for the Iranian economy. It also estimates the long-run terms of trade for total exports. The results indicate that export diversification has a positive impact on NBTT of manufactured and non-oil exports. However, it is not strong enough to prevent the deterioration of NETT of these sectors. Hence, diversification into manufactured exports might be considered as one of the solutions to improve terms of trade in Iran. The NBTT of primary commodity and agricultural product exports has deteriorated which confirms the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. However, the long-run trend rate of NBTT for total exports (including oil exports) is positive. According to our findings the income terms of trade (INTT) has improved for all exporting sectors.