تخمين تابع تقاضاي توريسم به ايران

The Estimation of Demand Function of Tourism, The Case of Iran (1969-2001)

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the factors impacting demand for travel to [ran in the form of tourism. Based on about three decades data on tourism the paper extimates the demand function for tourism industry. The modified model implies that one percent increase in ratio of the national retail consumer price index (NCPI) to the World retail consumer price index (WCPI) decreases .25 percent demand for travel to Iran. While one percent increase in the Gross Global Product (GGP) increases .45 percent demand for travel to Iran. The paper also shows that the internal social and political development as well as the security problems can determine considerably the rate of demand for travel to Iran which, in turn, can affect the shape the foreign exchange reserve negatively.