تعيين مؤلفه هاي تاب آوري با تأكيد بر آسيب پذيري اقتصاد ايران

Determining the Resilience components with an emphasis on Iran's Economic Vulnerability

ﺎب آوري اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮان ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻮك ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﻣﻴـﺰان ﺑﺎزﻳـﺎﺑﻲ ﭘـﺲ از ﺑـﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان ﻫﺎ اﺷﺎره دارد. ﻫﺪف از اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺎب آوري اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻳﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ اﻳﻦ اﺳﺎس، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ادﺑﻴﺎت ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺗﺎب آوري و ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﻳﻜﺮد ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ داده ﺑﻨﻴـﺎد ، اﺷـﺒﺎع ﻧﻈﺮي در ﺧﺼﻮص ﻣﻘﻮﻻت ﺗﺎب آوري اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻳﺮان ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه و ﺑﺎ روﻳﻜﺮد ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﮔﻴـﺮي ﻣـﺪل ﺑﻴﺰي، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞدﻫﻨﺪه ﺷﺎﺧﺺ اﺣﺼﺎء ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﻳﻜﺮد ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦﮔﻴﺮي ﺑﻴﺰي و در ﺣﻀﻮر 63 ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ، 7 ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ رﻳﺴﻚ، ﻧﺴﺒﺖ درآﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺘﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ درآﻣﺪ دوﻟﺖ، ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﻲ دوﻟﺖ، ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم، ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﺪﻫﻲ دوﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ، ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻛﺴﺮي ﺑﻮدﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﻲ و ﻧﻮﺳـﺎن ﻧـﺮخ رﺷـﺪ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﻨﮕﻲ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺸـﺨﺺ ﻛﻨﻨـﺪه ﺗـﺎب آوري اﻗﺘﺼـﺎد اﻳـﺮان ﺷـﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاري در ﺟﻬﺖ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ آﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫـﺎ ي اﻗﺘﺼـﺎد ي ﺑـﺎ در ﻧﻈـﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮد.

Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effective factors in Iran's economic resilience index. According to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the economic resilience components and indicator factors by using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. In the presence of 63 variables, seven variables were identified which include: risk index, oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, the growth rate of government oil revenues, inflation rate, the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, the budget deficit to GDP ratio and the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, as the most important variables determining the resilience of Iran's economy. Therefore, it is recommended to policymakers to reduce the vulnerability of economic sectors, by taking into account the impact of these variables.