رابطه بين انتشار گاز كربنيك، رشد اقتصادي و شدت آلودگي كشورها در سطوح مختلف توسعه با استفاده از مدل 3GR

Relationship between the Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, and Pollution Intensity in Different Levels of Development Countries (by using 3GR model)

نظر به اهميت مسائل زيست‌محيطي، كشورها نه‌تنها تلاش مي­كنند به اهداف اقتصادي برسند بلكه مي­كوشند آسيب ­هاي زيست‌محيطي ناشي از رشد اقتصادي را نيز به حداقل برسانند. لزوم تحقق اين امر بدون اطلاع از رابطه فعاليت­هاي اقتصادي با آلودگي محيط‌زيستي ميسر نيست. لذا در پژوهش حاضر رابطه بين انتشار گاز كربنيك، توليد ناخالص داخلي و شدت آلودگي براي 9 كشور در سه سطح متفاوت توسعه با استفاده از مدل 3GR در دوره زماني 2000 تا 2016 بررسي شد. نتايج نشان داد كه بين نرخ انتشار گاز كربنيك و رشد اقتصادي رابطه خطي مستقيم ولي بين نرخ رشد شدت آلودگي و رشد اقتصادي رابطه معكوس در مدل وجود دارد. همچنين طبق نتايج، كشورهاي كمتر توسعه‌يافته از نظر ارزش معادل نرخ رشد اقتصادي در جايگاه بالاتري نسبت به ساير كشورها قرار دارند و كشورهاي توسعه يافته در پايين­ترين جايگاه مي­باشند. نتايج عوامل مؤثر بر انتشار گاز كربنيك نشان داد كه رشد اقتصادي (ED) عامل مؤثر در گسترش آلودگي در كشورهاي درحال‌توسعه و كمتر توسعه­ يافته است؛ درحالي‌كه شدت آلودگي عامل اصلي گسترش آلودگي در كشورهاي توسعه­يافته است. اثرات رشد اقتصادي و شدت آلودگي به عنوان عوامل مؤثر بر تغييرات انتشار گاز كربنيك (PE)، در كشور­هاي توسعه يافته تقريباً به يك اندازه است اما مقادير آنها در كشور­هاي درحال‌توسعه و كمتر توسعه يافته تفاوت قابل‌توجهي دارند.

Introduction One of the major and urgent challenges in the global dimension is energy supply for sustainable development, air pollution, and climate change due to the emission of pollutant gases from fossil fuels (e.g, coal, oil, and gas) for use in production. Various goods and services are produced and eventually lead to global warming (Adams, 2006). Studies of greenhouse gas production indicate that in the course of economic development, the emission of gases such as methane and nitrous oxide have played far less of a greenhouse effect over the past 60 years. It also has a longer life span than the other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This makes climate change and pollution caused by increased carbon emissions more important than other greenhouse gases (IEA, 2009). Theoretical framework In the Kuznets curve, there is an inverse relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth, meaning that per capita income increases at early growth, then decreases as per capita income reaches a threshold (Jafari Samimi & Mohamadi Khayare., 2012). Many studies have used the Cobb-Douglas production function to analyze the relationship between pollution spread and economic growth (Amri, 2016; Zhixin & Xin, 2011; Saidi & Hammami, 2015). Economic activity generates income and wealth, but neglecting environmental considerations and the excessive use of natural resources and the release of pollutions during economic growth have a negative impact on the environment. Accordingly, it can be argued that the causal link between income level and environmental quality is not necessarily one-way from income to environmental quality and can have a two-way effect (Pigou, 1920). Methodology In this study, we introduce the 3GR model and its components, which illustrate the trilateral relationships between carbon emissions, GDP, and pollution intensity, and explain their dual correlation in terms of growth rate. (1) where and is equivalent to the value of carbon emissions from GDP and the pollution intensity, respectively. is annually GDP. is pollution intensity annually. In addition, is an unknown function that points to the interactive effect on carbon emissions. In order to directly compare the effect of carbon dioxide emissions, their absolute contribution to the pollution emission is calculated by equations 2, 3 and 4.