تحليل رفتار نامتقارن عربستان در شرايط عادي و آشفتگي در بازار جهاني نفت

Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior in normal and interruptions periods in the world oil market

چگونگي رفتار عربستان همواره يكي از مسائل مهم پيش روي نه‌تنها ايران بلكه ساير كشورهاي صادركننده و مصرف‌كننده نفت بوده است. اضافه ظرفيت در توليد نفت اين امكان را براي اين كشور فراهم مي‌كند كه در دوران عادي و آشفتگي در بازار نفت رفتاري متفاوت از ساير اعضاء اوپك مثل ايران از خود نشان دهد. در اين مقاله، رفتار صادرات عربستان سعودي با استفاده از داده‌هاي فصلي 2000 تا 2018 بررسي‌شده است. بدين منظور با تعديل مدل خطي گريفين (1985 ،Griffin) و استفاده از روش خود رگرسيون با وقفه‌هاي توزيعي (ARDL) رفتار صادراتي عربستان سعودي در دوران عادي و آشفتگي موردبررسي قرار گرفته است. نتايج نشان مي دهد كه صادرات عربستان در دوران عادي همسو با صادرات باقي اوپك و در دوران آشفتگي در خلاف جهت باقي اوپك تغيير مي‌يابد.اين نتايج كه كاملا با نتايج گريفين در تضاد قرار دارد نشان دهنده جايگاه ويژه عربستان در اوپك است.

The behavior of Opec’s main exporter such as Saudi Arabia has been the most important problem of Iran and other oil importer or exporter countries. Excess capacity in oil production of Saudi Arabia let them, in respect to other OPEC's members such as Iran, have different behavior in normal and interruptions. In this paper, we use seasonal data in the 2000-2018 period. We modified griffin’s model and estimated it by the ARDL method and investigate the export’s behavior of Saudi Arabia in normal and interruptions periods. We decomposed the other OPEC variable into four different states to evaluate Saudi Arabia's responses in these states. Empirical results show that Saudi Arabia's exports in the normal periods (stability in oil markets) are coordinate and symmetric but in interruptions periods (wars, sanctions,…) is not coordinate and asymmetric with the rest of OPEC countries. also if other OPEC counties have a cumulative increase in oil exports, Saudi Arabia responds in normal and interruptions periods are symmetric (its response is equal in export quantity) but not coordinate (its response is in opposite direction, so export coefficient is negative). This negative coefficient shows that Saudi Arabia's responses in interruptions periods have a stabilizing effect on oil markets. also if other OPEC counties have a cumulative decrease in oil exports, Saudi Arabia's response in normal and interruptions periods is not only asymmetric (its response is not equal in export quantity) but also not coordinate(its response is in opposite direction, so export coefficient is negative). Here also a negative coefficient shows that Saudi Arabia's responses in interruptions periods have a stabilizing effect on oil markets. But the empirical result of griffin's model (1985) says that an export cut by other OPEC, Saudi Arabia's response to these four states is similar.