مطالعه نوسانات بارش پيش بيني و تعيين فصول مرطوب و خشك زمستاني استان آذربايجان شرقي

The Study of Precipitation Fluctuations and the Determination and Prediction of Dry and Wet Seasons of Winter in East Azerbaijan

In this paper the data relating to the precipitation as a climatic element have been studied for different seasons for east Azerbaijan province in a time period of 41 years, with the purpose of analysis of raw precipitation data and modeling, calculation and forecasting of dry and wet seasons. The main methodology used in this research is the time series analysis. In order to interpret the precipitation fluctuations, we used two fluctuation and moving mean models and for forecasting the future wet and dry seasons, one of the methods frequently used in time series analysis, namely, the decomposition method was used. With quantitative patterns, and also the differentiation of wet and dry seasons the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used. The results of this study showed intensive precipitation fluctuations in all stations that generally include weaknesses and intensities. This indicates the climatic explanations of precipitation fluctuations in stations in East Azerbaijan province. Classifying the intensity of wet and dry winter seasons, we often see that the normal precipitation in different dry seasons and wet periods can be seen and the dry seasons have more stability and continuity compared to wet seasons. This issue affects the occurrence of drought in the region under study.