ARIMA بررسي و پيش بيني متوسط دماي ماهانه تبريز با استفاده از مدل آريما

The Analysis and Prediction of Monthly Average Temperature Changes in Tabriz Using ARIMA Model

Temperature has a very important role in environmental and climatic conditions of each area and has been widly used by various studies related to climatic planning .Modeling and the simulation of the temperature behavior has been noticed by climatologists and geographers in recent years. One of the methods for accomplishing this purpose is monthly temperature modeling on the basis of Box-Jenkins ARIMA model.Therefore, the research was carried out by the analysis of average monthly temperature for 40 years in Tabriz from 1959 to 1998 on the basis of statistical autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation and studying normality of residuals as well as using Kolmogrov-Smimov test. This is followed by comparing the Akaike Information Criterion Test Pattern ARIMA(1,1,3) (0,1,1)12 which is simply the combination of 2 parts of non-seasonal (p=1,d=l,q=3) and seasonal sections on the (SP=0,SD=1,SQ-l) and this model has been finally selected. On the basis of this pattern, the changes and monthly behavior of temperature in tabriz can be predicted and simulated for 12 years.