عنوان مقاله :
مدلسازي آزادسازي قيمت‌هاي انرژي در اقتصاد ايران
پديد آورندگان :
مدني‌زاده، علي دانشگاه صنعتي شريف - دانشكده مديريت و اقتصاد، تهران، ايران , ابراهيميان، مهران دانشگاه پنسيلوانيا، پنسيلوانيا، آمريكا
كليدواژه :
اصلاح قيمت حامل‌هاي انرژي , يارانه انرژي , طرح هدفمندي يارانه‌ها , تعادل عمومي پويا , سياست پولي , رفاه خانوار
چكيده فارسي :
در اين پژوهش، ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﯼ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺣﺎﻣﻞﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ ﻭ بازتوزيع ﻋﻤﻮمي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ به دست آمده از آن ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﯼ ﺑﺮﺭسي مي‌شود. ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺣﺎﻣﻞﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺮﮊي ﻭ ﺍﻋﻄﺎﯼ يارانه ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ قيمتي ﺍﺯ رايج ترين ﻧﻮﻉ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﯼ ﺣﻤﺎيتي ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﮐﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ اين، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺣﺎﻣﻞﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮخي ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻮﻣاً براي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﺴﺮﯼ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﻮﺭ ﮐﺎﺭ سياستگذاران ﻗﺮﺍﺭ گرفته است. ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﺣﺎﻣﻞﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ ﺩﺭ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪﯼ يارانه ها، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ بازتوزيع ﻋﻤﻮمي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ به دست آمده ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺷﺪ. ﺩﺭ اين پژوهش، ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ يك ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻋﻤﻮمي پويا ﮐﻪ مبتني ﺑﺮ شرايط ﻧﻬﺎﺩﯼ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﯼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﮐﻼﻥ ايران ﻃﺮﺍحي مي‌شود، ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﮐﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﯼ اين سياست در سناريوهاي مختلف ﺑﺮﺭسي مي‌شود. ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮلي هدفگذاري ﮐﻞﻫﺎﯼ ﭘﻮلي، نتايج پژوهش ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ميﺩﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺷﺪﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻩ، ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ افزايش مي يابد ﮐﻪ بيشتر اين افزايش ﺩﺭ ﮐﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ مي افتد ﻭ ﻧﺎشي ﺍﺯ افزايش ﻗﺪﺭﺕ خريد ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ اين ﺣﺎﻝ، ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﯿﻞ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻧﯿﺮﻭﯼ ﮐﺎﺭ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺎشي ﺍﺯ دريافت يارانه ﻧﻘﺪﯼ ﺍﺳﺖ، ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷﺖ سرمايه ﺩﺭ ﮐﻮﺗﺎﻩﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ مي يابد. در سناريويي كه اصلاح قيمت تنها براي مصرف‌كننده باشد، نتايج به صورت كيفي يكسان است و تنها آثار كمّي آن كوچك‌تر است. ﺩﺭ نهايت، نياز ﺑﻪ يادآوري ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ نتايج به دستﺁﻣﺪﻩ ارزيابي ﮐﺎﻣﻞ اين ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻧﯿﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ اين ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ پژوهش‌هاي ﺁتي ﺟﻨﺒﻪﻫﺎﯼ ﺭﺷﺪ فناورانه ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺍﻧﺮﮊﯼ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﯼ ﭘﻮلي ﺳﺎﺯﮔﺎﺭﺗﺮ ﺑﺎ شرايط ﮐﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ همچنين، ﺟﻨﺒﻪﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺳﯿﺎسي اين ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ بررسي ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﯿﺮﺩ.
چكيده لاتين :
This paper attempts to analyze the macroeconomic effects of
energy price liberalization and redistribution of its proceeds to households.
Energy price control and energy subsidies are of the most popular supportive
policies in the economy of Iran. Nonetheless, increasing the energy price
of households and firms has been exercised in recent years to counter the
government budget deficit. In 2008, the government proposed a reform:
energy price liberalization and redistribution of its proceeds to the household.
In this paper, we analyze the macroeconomic effects of this policy according to
different scenarios. In view of monetary aggregate control policy, our results
show that in addition to a decline in energy intensities of households and
firms, the average household’s welfare increases. Most of this increase
happens in the short-run as households’ real incomes rise more in the short
run. Moreover, we find that this reform results in a decline in labor supply due
to the subsidy distribution, and hence a decline in both output and capital
accumulation in the short run and the long run. In the scenario where only the
household’s energy price rises, results are qualitatively similar with a smaller
quantitative effect. Finally, it is important to note that a complete analysis of
this reform should include 1) the technological progress that can be associated
with a reform, 2) implementing a monetary policy that is more consistent with
Iran’s institutional arrangement and 3) the political economy aspects of the
reform, which are all out of the scope of this paper.
عنوان نشريه :
برنامه ريزي و بودجه
