شناسايي شاخص‌هاي بانك‌هاي در معرض بحران ورشكستگي بر اساس روش تحليل تم

Identification of Indicators of Banks subject to Bankruptcy Crisis Based on Thematic Analysis Method

وقوع پديده ورشكستگي بانكي درنظام‌هاي پولي دنيا با حساسيت بالايي روبرو است،زيرا تبعات ريسك سيستمي توأم با اين پديده مي‌تواند داراي آثار بسيارمخربي بر مجموعه نظام پولي و مالي كشورها باشد وبه بحران‌هاي شديد سياسي و امنيتي منجر شود. قوانين ومقررات معتبري براي ارزيابي وضعيت و عملكرد بانك و اعلام هشدار نسبت به بحران منتهي به ورشكستگي بانكي در دنيا تدوين شده است. وضعيت برخي از كشورها از جمله ايران به لحاظ اقتصادي و ساير جنبه ­ها متفاوت از سايرين بوده و اين مساله ضرورت بومي ­سازي شاخص ­هاي شناسايي بانك­ هاي در معرض بحران ورشكستگي در ايران را دو چندان مي­ نمايد. در اين پژوهش از طريق مصاحبه با خبرگان بانكي و روش تحليل تم، پژوهشگران به 17 شاخص با درجه تاثيرگذاري بالا بر ورشكستگي بانكي دست يافتند كه 5 شاخص به طور خاص ويژه شرايط جاري بانك هاي كشور مي باشد.

The occurrence of bankruptcy in the world's monetary systems is highly sensitive, as the systemic risk consequences associated with this phenomenon can have very devastating effects on the monetary and financial system of countries and lead to severe political and security crises. Valuable laws and regulations have been developed to assess the status and performance of the bank and to warn of the crisis leading to bankruptcy in the world. The situation of some countries, including Iran, is different economically and in other respects. In this study, through interviews with banking experts and thematic analysis, the researchers identified 17 indicators with a high degree of impact on bankruptcy, that five of them are specific to the current conditions of the Iran’s banks. these indicators could be usefully in every suitable ranking model. the proposed quantitative model could be used in case study researches for future research to know the important problems of high high risk banks.