شناسايي و رتبه بندي علل بروز بحران درياچه اروميه با بكارگيري روش دلفي

Recognition and Ranking the Causes of the Outbreak Crises in Uromieh Lake Using Delphi Technique

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف : ﺧﺸﮏ ﺳﺎﻟﯽ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ آﺳﯿﺐ آن در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ و ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺑﯿﺎﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺸﻢ ﻣﯽ ﺧﻮرد . ﺣﻮﺿﻪ آﺑﺮﯾﺰ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ ي اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺮاﮐﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ زﯾﺎد اﻣﺮوزه ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ اﯾﺮان ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ورود ﺣﺠﻢ آب ﮐﻢ از رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﺑﺎرش ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي ﺣﯿﺎت اﯾﻦ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ در ﻣﻌﺮض ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﺟﺪي ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ 52000 ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ و ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﺑﺎرش 200 ﺗﺎ 900 ﻣﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﺘﺮ، ﺣﺠﻢ آﺑﯽ در ﺣﺪود 22 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﺎرد ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﺎرش در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ را دارا ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ . ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي و اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ آب ﺷﯿﺮﯾﻦ ، ﺳﺪﻫﺎي زﯾﺎدي ﺑﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺣﺪود3 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﺎرد ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روي ﺑﺴﺘﺮ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ اﺣﺪاث ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ آﺑﺮﯾﺰ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ و ورود ﻣﯿﺰان آب در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ ، اﺣﯿﺎي ﮐﺎﻣﻞ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ ﺑﻪ وﺿﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﻗﺒﻠﯽ ﺑﻌﯿﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽ رﺳﺪ روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ : در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻋﻠﻞ ﺑﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان ﺑﻪ روش دﻟﻔﯽ و رﺗﺒﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ ﺣﺪ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻫﺮ ﮐﺪام از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان را ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﻮد و ﺑﻪ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ دﺳﺖ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ : در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﭼﻬﺎر ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﺻﻠﯽ و 21 زﯾﺮﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺟﻬﺖ ﻋﻠﻞ ﺑﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان درﯾﺎﭼﻪ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي : ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از ﭼﻬﺎر ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﺻﻠﯽ و 21 زﯾﺮﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه ، ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺳﺪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ 23 درﺻﺪ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ 8 درﺻﺪاز ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان در درﯾﺎﭼﻪ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ

Background and Objective: Drought is one of the natural phenomenons which have the most damages to the arid and semi-arid areas. Today the catchment of Uromieh Lake with large scale of population density is one of the most important environmental challenges, so that, because of low precipitation and decrease of water flows in recent years, the life of this lake has been in serious hazard. This catchment with 52000 square kilometers, and average of 200 to 900 millimeters of rainfall, has the water volumes of 22 billion cubic meters of water in all its catchment. There has been constructed several dams with reserving volume of 3 billion cubic meters on the rivers coming to the lake, in order to providing the needs of agriculture and human fresh water. Regarding the diminish of catchment area of the lake and the amount of water flow, prefect restoration of the lake is very rare. Method: In this research, we have tried to explain the impact of the factors of the crises with recognizing the causes of outbreak of crises by using Delphi technique, in order to accession of managing priorities. Findings: In this research, four main criteria and 21 sub-criteria have been identified the causes of crisis in the lake of Uromieh. Discussion and Conclusion: According to the findings of this research, there are four main criteria and 21 sub-criteria. Construction of dams with 23 percent and changes in cropping patterns with 8 percent of impact, are the most important and effective causes of crises in the lake of Uromieh.