بررسي اثر شوك‌هاي موثر بر رشد اقتصادي ايران در فضاي نهادي

the Influence of the Effective Shocks on Economic Growth in Iran with the Emphasis on Institutional Variables

هدف اين مقاله بررسي اثر شوك‌هاي موثر بر رشد اقتصادي در فضاي نهادي كشور است. بدين منظور، از روش گشتاورهاي تعميم‌يافته و الگوي خودرگرسيون‌ برداري ساختاري براي دست‌يابي به برآوردگرهاي مدل ساختاري ايران طي دوره زماني 1396- 1349 استفاده شد و مدل ماندل - ‌فيليمينگ (1963) براي لحاظ تابع نهادي تعديل گرديد. نتايج نشان ‌مي‌دهد بهبود فضاي نهادي بر اكثر متغيرهاي مهم اقتصاد ايران اثرگذار بوده و بهبود كيفيت نهادها به افزايش توليد ملي و كاهش حجم‌ نقدينگي مي‌انجامد. هم‌چنين، بيش‌ترين تخريب وضعيت نهادي مربوط به افزايش حجم‌ دولت و تورم بوده‌ است. اكثر تكانه‌هاي مورد پژوهش، اثر معناداري بر رشد اقتصادي و وضعيت نهادي كشور داشته‌اند. بر اساس نتايج، پيشنهاد مي‌شود دولت گام‌هاي موثرتري در راستاي كاهش حجم فعاليت‌هاي خود برداشته و به انضباط مالي به تبع آن انضباط پولي، پايبندي بيش‌تري نشان دهند.

Early economists have cited economic freedom as the basis for economic growth, and later economists have emphasized the role of inclusive political and economic institutions in creating and sustaining economic growth. The relationship between these two perspectives goes to the concept that the economic freedom shapes by economic institutions. Proper institutional of countries not only contributes to the growth and prosperity of their economies, but can also increase the power of countries in the face of economic shocks. Identifying the institutions’ situation of countries can help to adopt appropriate policies by governments and the private sector. In this study, by generalizing a structural model of Iran's economy as it includes the endogenous institutional function, attempt to measure the effects of effective shocks on the macroeconomic structure of the country with emphasis on institutional variables. The results show that the increase in oil shock has had a positive effect on the country's economic growth and institutions. This study had done for the period 1349-1399 by using GMM and Svar methods. The result of estimating the structural model shows that improvement of the institutional environment has affected most of the important variables of the Iran's economy, so improving the quality of institutions leads to increase in national product and reduces liquidity. Also, damaging institutional factors is related with increase in government size and inflation. Most of the impulses considered in the study had a significant effect on economic growth and institutional status of the country.