ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ رواﺑﻂ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ- ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار- اﻧﺘﺸﺎر دياﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ در اﯾﺮان: روﯾﮑﺮد ﺧﻮدرﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﺑﺮداري ﺑﯿﺰﯾﻦ

Investigation of Interrelationship between Renewable Energy- Sustainable Development- Co2 Emmision in Iran: Bayesian VAR Approach

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪود ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﻓﺴﯿﻠﯽ و ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪاي، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ از ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﻪ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺿﺮورت دارد، زﯾﺮا از اﯾﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار دﺳﺖ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ، اﻧﺘﺸﺎر دياﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار در اﯾﺮان و ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، رواﺑﻂ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﻮﯾﺎ در اﻟﮕﻮي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار- اﻧﺮژي- آﻻﯾﻨﺪه دياﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺧﻮدرﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﺑﺮداري ﺑﯿﺰﯾﻦ )BVAR( در اﯾﺮان ﻃﯽ دوره 1980- 2013 ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ )GDP( اﻏﻠﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﯿﺎن رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد، اﻣﺎ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻧﺎﮐﺎرآﻣﺪ اﺳﺖ. ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺲاﻧﺪاز ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﺪه )GS( اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﮑﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ در ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار در اﯾﺮان ﻣﺜﺒﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺷﻮك ﻣﺜﺒﺖ وارده ﺑﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر آﻻﯾﻨﺪه دياﮐﺴﯿﺪ ﮐﺮﺑﻦ )CO2( ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺑﻪﻋﻼوه، اﺛﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاران ﺗﺮوﯾﺞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻨﻮعﺳﺎزي ﻋﺮﺿﻪ اﻧﺮژي ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه اﻧﺮژيﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ را در اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﻗﺮار دﻫﻨﺪ.

Background and Objective: Due to the limitation of fossil energy resources and problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to focus on renewable energy resources, because it can be used to achieve sustainable development goals. Thus, the purpose of this research is to investigate relations among renewable energy, CO2 emissions and sustainable development and compared to non-renewable energy in Iran. Method: In this study, dynamic interrelationships in the sustainable development-energy- CO2 emissions nexus is examined by applying bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) in Iran over the period 1980-2013. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the indicator commonly used to measure economic growth and sustainable development, but this indicator is inefficient for evaluating development. One of the most prominent alternative indicators for sustainable development is the Index of Genuine Savings (GS). For this purpose, in this study GS is used as an indicator of sustainable development. Findings: Results reveal that the impact of creating positive shock on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on sustainable development in Iran is positive. Also, positive shock on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption causes an increase in CO2 emission. Moreover, the impact of an increase in sustainable development is positive on renewable energy consumption and is negative on non-renewable energy consumption. Discussion and Conclusion: It is suggested that policy makers prioritize the promotion of energy supply diversification policies, especially renewable energy.