پديد آورندگان :
اسماعيلي علويجه، الهام دانشگاه تهران , كريمي، سعيد دانشگاه تهران - دانشكده محيط زيست , علوي پور، فاطمه سادات دانشگاه تهران
كليدواژه :
سيل , آسيب‌پذيري , منطق‌فازي , منطقه 22 تهران
چكيده فارسي :
زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﮐﻠﯽ در دﻫﻪ ﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺧﺴﺎرت ﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺟﺎري ﺷﺪن ﺳﯿﻞ در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺷﻬﺮﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ در ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻫﻤﻮاره ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﮐﻨﺎن اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺳﯿﻞ ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﺴﺎرات ﺟﺎﻧﯽ و ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از روش ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ ﻓﺎزي )AHP ﻓﺎزي( ﭼﺎﻧﮓ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﺑﺰرگ ﺗﺮ ﺑﻮدن درﺟﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺟﻬﺖ وزن دﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي ﺷﯿﺐ، ﺧﺎك، ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ از رود، زﻣﯿﻦ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ، ارﺗﻔﺎع، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ و ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﭘﺲ از وزن دﻫﯽ، ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ARCGIS ﻓﺎزي ﺳﺎزي ﮔﺮدﯾﺪﻧﺪ و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ از ﻋﻤﻞﮔﺮﻫﺎي ﻓﺎزي ﺟﻬﺖ روي ﻫﻢ ﮔﺬاري ﻻﯾﻪ ﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. يافته‌ها:. براي تعديل نقشه‌هاي به دست آمده از عملگرهاي ضرب جبري و جمع جبري، از عملگرهاي گاما 0/9، گاما 0/7و گاما 0/5 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻋﻤﻞﮔﺮ ﮔﺎﻣﺎ 0/7ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ دﺳﺖﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺗﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ.
ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ و اﯾﻦﮐﻪ درﺻﺪ ﺗﺮاﮐﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺷﻤﺎل ﺷﺮﻗﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﮐﻦ از 1/07 درﺻﺪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ. اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي در آن ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﻻ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮدد. ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ اﺳﺖ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و ﺳﺎزﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺠﺎز در ﺣﺮﯾﻢ رود ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮐﻦ و وردآورد ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ آب و رﻫﺎﺳﺎزي ﯾﮏ ﺑﺎره آن در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻮد و اﮔﺮ روﻧﺪ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و ﺳﺎزﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺠﺎز و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اداﻣﻪ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺳﯿﻞ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 22 ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ زﯾﺎد ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Background and Objective: In general, in recent decades, due to urban lives on the sidelines of
rivers, dwellers of these areas have been the subject of damages caused by flood. The goal of this
research is determining the vulnerability level of urban areas against flood in order to reducing human
and financial losses.
Method: For this purpose, Chung fuzzy analysis hierarchical process method (fuzzy AHP) is used due
to the higher degree of possibility for weighting criteria of gradient, soil, distance from river, geology,
height, land usage, and population. After weighting, the criteria of vulnerability in the environment
ARCGIS were fuzzy and ultimately fuzzy operators were used for overlapping layers.
Findings: To amend the obtained maps, algebraic multiplication and algebraic addition operators,
Gamma 0.9, Gamma 0.7 and Gamma 0.5 operators were used. Obtained map from Gamma 0.7
operator was chosen as the final map of vulnerability for obtaining more appropriate result.
Discussion and Conclusion: Therefore, considering the final map, and that the percentage of
population density is over 1.07 in the eastern north of the area near Kan river, the possibility of
vulnerability is proposed to be high in that area. Also it is possible that unpermitted constructions in
Kan and Vardavard River limits will lead to water aggregation and its sudden release in the area, and
if the process of unpermitted constructions and population increase is continued in the area, it can be
resulted that the possibility of vulnerability against flood may be high in Tehran District 22.
