بررسي توريسم شهرستان فريدونشهر تحت شرايط تغيير اقليم

An Investigation in Tourism of Fereydounshahr under the Climate Change conditions

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺗﻮرﯾﺴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺟﻮي از ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي ﻣﯽﭘﺬﯾﺮد و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ آن در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﻓﺮﯾﺪونﺷﻬﺮ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﺗﻮرﯾﺴﺘﯽ آن ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺟﻮي ﮔﺮه ﺧﻮرده، ﺷﺪﯾﺪﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺗﻮرﯾﺴﻢ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﻓﺮﯾﺪونﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﻧﺎﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮي ﻣﻦﮐﻨﺪال ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از آﻣﺎر ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در اﻟﮕﻮي اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺗﻮرﯾﺴﻢ TCI در ﯾﮏ دوره 30 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ از 1987 ﺗﺎ 2016 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻦﮐﻨﺪال ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ دﻣﺎي روزاﻧﻪ و ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺷﺒﺎﻧﻪروزي دﻣﺎ، داراي روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ و ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ رﻃﻮﺑﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﯽ داراي روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﻣﺎهﻫﺎ از دﯾﮕﺮ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در روﻧﺪ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺜﺎل ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ژاﻧﻮﯾﻪ از ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ، ﻣﺎرس از ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺮزي و آورﯾﻞ از ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮل ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺮزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﮐﺮد. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺎرش ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﻣﺎ و ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ دﻣﺎي ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ، ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ رﯾﺰشﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﺻﻮرت ﺑﺮف، آب ﺷﺪن ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﺑﺮف ارﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎت و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻔﺮﯾﺤﺎت در ﻓﺼﻞ ﺳﺮد و ﮔﺮم را در ﭘﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ از دﺳﺖ دادن اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﯾﯿﻼﻗﯽ ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﮐﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ و ﺷﺎداﺑﯽ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺑﻮم ﮔﯿﺎﻫﯽ و ﺟﺎﻧﻮري از دﯾﮕﺮ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪ آن اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ روﯾﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ در ﺟﺬاﺑﯿﺖ اﮐﻮﺗﻮرﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.

Background: The tourism industry, due to its strong dependence on weather conditions, is influenced more by climate change; this impact is more intense in Faridounshahr County, where its ecotourism potential is more dependent on the climatic conditions. Method: In this research, the trend representing the bio-climatic tourism changes of Fereydounshahr County was investigated by using nonparametric methods. For this purpose, the monthly climatic elements employed in the TCI tourism climate model were used during a period of 30 years, from 1987 to 2016. Finding: The results obtained by conducting the Man-Kendall test showed that the trend related to variations in the maximum daily and the average daily temperature was a growing one; while variations in the minimum average and the average relative humidity showed a deceasing trend; this was followed by a decrease in the amount of precipitation, thereby severely affecting the TCI index. Changes in bioclimatic conditions of some months were another consequence of the changes in the trend of climatic parameters. For example, January living conditions varied from very inappropriate to inappropriate, March changed from inappropriate to border conditions, and April conditions ranged from acceptable to borderline. Discussion and Conclusion: Change in climatic conditions include; the significant decrease of precipitation, as accompanied by an increase in the average temperature and the average maximum temperature, had such consequences as decreased snow falls, the rapid melting of snow in high altitudes, and the reduced desirability of the environment for recreation on the snow in the cold season, as well as the loss of mountain climates and the liveliness of vegetation and animal ecosystems. This will lead to decrease in eco-tourism attractions.