ارزيابي مطلوبيت مكاني كاربري كشاورزي با توجه به توان اكولوژيكي، اقتصادي و نياز اجتماعي در حوزه آبخيز سمنان

Suitability Evaluation for Agriculture with Regard to Ecological, Economic Power and Social Demand in Semnan Watershed

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ و اﺻﻮﻟﯽ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦ و ﺳﺎﻣﺎندﻫﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ، ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﯽ در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ و ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ در راﺳﺘﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار دارد. ﻟﯿﮑﻦ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﻋﻠﯽ رﻏﻢ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻮان اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮص ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ در ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦ، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ زﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺻﻮل اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﻫﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺧﻄﯽ وزندار و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ و اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪاردﺳﺎزي ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪﻫﺎي ﻓﺎزي، ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﮐﺸﺎورزي، ﻧﯿﺎز اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ زﻣﯿﻦ از زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﯾﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﮑﺎن دار ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ اﯾﻦ ﻧﻘﺸﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﺑﺎﯾﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﺳﻤﻨﺎن ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان از اﯾﻦ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ در ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي زﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺰ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻧﻤﻮد. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯽﮐﺎري و ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ده ﺳﺎل آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﮐﺸﺎورزي، دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎده و ﺑﺮق ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و آب و ﺧﺎك ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﺗﻮان اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي در ﮐﻨﺎر ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ، ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ زﻣﯿﻨﯽ دارد و ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ در ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد.

Background and Purpose: Optimal and principled use of natural resources and land use management based on ecological potential, has an important role in environmental management and prevention of environmental degradation in the direction of sustainable development. However, ignoring the social need, despite considering the economic and especially the ecological potential in land use planning, leads to inconsistency with the terrestrial reality, which is one of the basic principles of any land use planning. Materials and Methods: In this study, using weighted linear combination method and hierarchical analysis and standardization of criteria using fuzzy sets, in addition to preparing an ecological and economic potential map for agricultural use, the social needs to change land from barren lands to agriculture were also mapped. By combining all of them, a map of the desirability of changing barren lands to agriculture in the Semnan watershed was obtained, which can also be used in modeling land use changes. Results: In this study, unemployment rate and population growth rate in the next ten years as the most important social factors of agricultural land use change, access to roads and electricity as the most important economic factors, and soil and water as the most important ecological resources of agricultural land use were determined. Discussion and conclusions: Considering the social needs and economic potential along with ecological capability, is more in line with the ground reality and can be used in the optimal allocation of agricultural land.