ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي (Ursus arctos syriacus) در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻧﺎﭘﺸﺘﻪ ﭼﺎي

Habitat Suitability Modeling for Brown Bear (Ursus arctos syriacus) in Naposhteh-Chai Watershed

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي )Ursus arctos syriacus( ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮدي ﮐﻪ در ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺖ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ در ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﮐﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﮕﺮاﻧﯽ ﻗﺮار دارد، اﻣﺎ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و داﻣﻨﻪ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر آن ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺰرگ ﺟﺜﻪ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﮔﻮﺷﺖ ﺧﻮار ﮐﺸﻮر، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه و ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻧﺎﭘﺸﺘﻪ ﭼﺎي اﻧﺠﺎم ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻘﺎط ﺣﻀﻮر )از ﭘﺎﺋﯿﺰ 1394 ﺗﺎ ﭘﺎﺋﯿﺰ 1395(، از روش ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ آﻧﺘﺮوﭘﯽ ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﯿﺮي ﺷﺪ. ﻻﯾﻪ ﻫﺎي اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺣﻀﻮر ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﺒﻘﺎت درﺻﺪ ﺷﯿﺐ، ﻃﺒﻘﺎت ﺟﻬﺖ ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ، ﻃﺒﻘﺎت ارﺗﻔﺎع از ﺳﻄﺢ درﯾﺎ، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ، ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آﺑﯽ، ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ )روﺳﺘﺎﻫﺎ و ﺟﺎده ﻫﺎ( و اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺣﺪود 24/4% از وﺳﻌﺖ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻧﺎﭘﺸﺘﻪ ﭼﺎي، زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه، ﺧﺮس ارﺗﻔﺎع 1000-2100 ﻣﺘﺮ از ﺳﻄﺢ درﯾﺎ و ﺷﯿﺐ 10 ﺗﺎ 60% را ﺗﺮﺟﯿﺢ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻋﻼوه ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي وﺟﻮد ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ ﻣﺘﺮاﮐﻢ، اراﺿﯽ زراﻋﯽ، ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و روﺳﺘﺎﻫﺎ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺟﻬﺖ داﻣﻨﻪ و ﻧﻮع اﻗﻠﯿﻢ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺣﻀﻮر اﯾﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽ ROC ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0/970، ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ﻗﺪرت ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻋﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﯾﮏ ﭘﺎرﭼﻪ ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﮑﯿﺪي، اﺳﮑﻠﻮ، ﻧﺎﭘﺸﺘﻪ و ﺑﺎﻻﺳﻨﮓ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﻣﺤﺪوده زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي و اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﮐﺮﯾﺪورﻫﺎ و ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎﯾﯽ ﺧﺮس ﻗﻬﻮه اي ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎرج از ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ از ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺳﺖ.

Background and Objective: Brown bear (Ursus Arctos) is classified as a Least Concern (LC) species of the International unio‎n for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but its population and distribution have decreased during last decades. This study was carried out to assess the habitat suitability for Brown bear and the effective factors affecting its distribution in Naposhteh-Chai watershed. Method: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach available in MaxEnt software was used for the habitat suitability modeling of this species from autumn 2015 to autumn 2016. Information layers determined as affecting variables on this species include the slope, aspect, elevation, land use, water resources, human development variables (villages and roads) and climate. Findings: Results showed that 24.4 percent of Naposhteh-Chai watershed were suitable for Brown bear. Based on habitat suitability map, Brown bear preferred elevation range of 1000 to 2100 meters and slope of 10 to 60 percent. Furthermore, existing of densed forests, farmlands, water sources, villages and also aspect and climate, are important factors in the presence of this species. Discussion and Conclusion: Results of model evaluation using the area under the curve (ROC= 0.970) showed that prediction of this model are much more accurate than random conditions. Brown bear suitable integrated habitats, are located in Makidi, Oskolu, Naposhteh and Bala Sang areas. Prevention of tourism development in the suitable habitats of Brown bear, and, determination of corridors and movement routs of the species outside of the Naposhteh-Chai watershed in future studies were suggested in the route of this research.