تحليل عوامل مؤثر بر الگوي شهر سبز با رويكرد آينده‌پژوهي در كلان‌شهر مشهد

Analysis of Factors Affecting Pattern Green City with Futures Study Approach in Mashhad

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: اﻣﺮوزه ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر دﺳﺖﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﺷﻬﺮي ﺑﺎﯾﺪ از اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ و روﯾﮑﺮدﻫﺎﯾﯽ آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﺎﻧﻪ و ﺳﺎزﮔﺎر ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ ﻫﻢﭼﻮن ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺰ ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮان در ﮐﻨﺎر ارﺗﻘﺎ ﺳﻄﺢ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ ﻣﺤﯿﻂﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي، اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﯿﻂﻫﺎ را ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺟﺰﺋﯽ از ﻣﺤﯿﻂﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﺴﻞﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه ﺣﻔﻆ ﮐﺮد. ﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﯽ آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﺮان و ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﻮد ﺗﺎ از اﯾﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺑﺘﻮان ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر دﺳﺖﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻪ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺰ در آﯾﻨﺪه، ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﮐﻼنﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ اراﯾﻪ داد. روش ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ: اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻫﺪف از ﻧﻮع ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ در ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﻣﯿﮏ ﻣﮏ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﺮﺷﺪﮔﯽ دادهﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ دو ﺑﺎر ﭼﺮﺧﺶ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 79/04 درﺻﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﮔﻮﯾﺎي ﻣﯿﺰان اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﺑﺎﻻي ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺰ ﺑﺮ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺖ زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﺎ اﻣﺘﯿﺎز 68 داراي ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: در ﻣﺠﻤﻮع وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ در ﻧﻘﺸﻪ اﺛﺮ- واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ و ﻏﯿﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﮐﻼنﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮ ﺳﺒﺰ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﯾﺪاري ﻗﺮار دارد.

Introduction: Today, in order to achieve sustainable urban development, future research and environmentally friendly models and approaches such as the green city must be used to improve the quality of life in the current conditions of urban environments, these environments as a part of environmental protection. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to identify the driving and key indicators with a future-oriented view of the green city approach in order to provide scenarios appropriate to the conditions of Mashhad metropolis in order to achieve a green city model in the future. Material and Methods: This research is applied in terms of purpose, which has been done by using descriptive-analytical method and using the matrix of interaction analysis in Mick Mac futures research software. Results: The results showed that the data filling index with two rotations is equal to 79.04%, which indicates the high impact of green city indicators on each other. The results also showed that the environmental participation index with a score of 68 has the highest rate of direct impact on other research indicators. Discussion and Conclusions: In general, the distribution of indicators in the direct-indirect dependence effect map showed that Mashhad metropolis is in a state of instability in terms of green city indicators.