بررسي همبستگي فضايي-زماني ميان روند تغييرات كاربري زمين و نوسانات كمي آب زيرزميني در دشت اردبيل

Analyzing Spatiotemporal Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Groundwater Quantity in Ardabil Plain

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: درك ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ-زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي زﻣﯿﻦ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ و ﭘﺎﯾﺪار دﺷﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻤﻨﻮﻋﻪ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺣﺎﯾﺰ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ درﺻﺪد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي زﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻤﻖ ﺳﻄﺢ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ در دﺷﺖ- ﻣﻤﻨﻮﻋﻪ اردﺑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي زﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 2009 ،1998 ،1989 و 2014 از ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮراه اي ﻟﻨﺪﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺷﺪ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﻣﻮرد ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ ﻋﻤﻖ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺎ روش ﮐﺮﯾﺠﯿﻨﮓ ﺑـﺮ اي ﭼﻬـﺎر دوره از داده ﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺰوﻣﺘﺮي ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ و ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐـﺎرﺑﺮ ي زﻣـ ﯿﻦ و ﻧﻮﺳـﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻤـﻖ آب ز ﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨـﯽ ﺗﻮﺳـﻂ روش ﻫـ ﺎي REGRESS و CORRELATE ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي زﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻧﺴﺎن ﺳﺎﺧﺖ )5/1 درﺻﺪ( و ﮐﺸﺎورزي )10/57 درﺻﺪ( و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن ﮐﺎﻫﺶ زﻣﯿﻦ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﯾﺮ )14/78 درﺻﺪ( و ﺟﻨﮕﻞ )0/88 درﺻﺪ( ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻋﻤﻖ ﺳﻄﺢ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ در 25 ﺳـﺎل ﮔﺬﺷـﺘﻪ 6/27 ﻣﺘـﺮ 2 ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻘﺪار R ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از روش REGRESS ﺑﯿﻦ 0/35 ﺗﺎ 0/54 در دوره ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. ارزش R ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از CORRELATE ﺑﺮاي ﺗﮏ ﺗﮏ ﭘﯿﮑﺴﻞ ﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ زﻣﯿﻦ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻧﺴﺎن ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺮاﺗﻊ ﺑﺎ روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ ﻋﻤﻖ ﺳﻄﺢ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

Background and Objectives: Understanding spatiotemporal relationship between Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) and groundwater quantity changes is vital to efficient and sustainable restricted plain management. This study aims to analyze relationship between LUCCs and groundwater quantity changes in the Ardabil restricted plain. Method: The land use maps were extracted and classified from four Landsat images for 1989, 1998, 2009, and 2014. Then the classified images accuracy was assessed. The groundwater depth distribution maps extracted from piezometric data using Kriging method for the same times. REGRESS and CORRELATE modules in Idrise Selva package used to analyze relation between LUCCs and groundwater depth changes in the study area. Findings: Results indicated the incremental trend in human built environment (5.1%) and agricultural land (10.57%) at the expense of decreasing in bare land (14.78%) and forestland (0.88%). The average groundwater depth decline was about 6.27 meters over past studied 25 years. All the obtained R values from REGRESS model were between 0.35 and 0.54 for different studied periods. The R2 values from CORRELATE for each cells confirmed the direct spatiotemporal relationship between the occurred LUCCs and groundwater quantity changes within the study area. Discussion and Conclusion: This study shows the ability of RS and GIS techniques alongside statistical models based on regression analyzing is useful to analyze relation between dynamic LUCCs and groundwater depth changes. The results and applied approach can be useful in efficient management, planning and policy making of restricted plains and also in identifying priority zones for land use and groundwater management.