شبيه‌سازي و ارزيابي سناريو‌هاي توسعه شهري با بهره‌گيري از تلفيق خودكاره سلولي و تئوري بازي‌ها (مطالعه‌ي موردي: شهرك روزيه‌ي شهر سمنان)

Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Development Scenarios Using Integration of Cellular Automata Model and Game Theory

طرح‌ريزي توسعه‌ي پايدار كاربري اراضي شهر (به عنوان يك سيستم پيچيده)، بدون اتكاء به چارچوبي جهت شناسايي، پيشبيني، برنامه‌ريزي و ارزيابي روند توسعه‌ي شهر مبتني بر تعريف تعاملات ميان انواع كاربري، ساختار جمعيت (ميزان رشد و چگونگي توزيع جمعيت) و همچنين در نظر گرفتن رفتار راهبردي عوامل اصلي دخيل در فرايند توسعه‌ي شهر، امكانپذير نيست. اين مقاله مدلي مبتني بر تلفيق خودكاره‌ي سلولي، تحليل چندمعياره و تئوري‌بازي‌ها براي طرح‌ريزي كاربري اراضي و شبيه‌سازي چگونگي توسعه‌ي شهر با توجه به سناريوهاي موردنظر براي تغيير ساختار جمعيت شهري را ارائه مي‌دهد. در اين مدل، از تلفيق خودكاره‌ي سلولي و تحليل چندمعياره به عنوان ابزاري براي مدل‌سازي تعاملات ميان انواع كاربري و كمّي‌سازي تأثيرات متقابل ميان آنها، با توجه به آستانه‌ي فعاليت و آستانه‌ي تأثيرگذاري آنها، بهره گرفته شده است. همچنين در مدل پيشنهادي، تغيير كاربري معلول تصميم‌گيري دو عامل توسعه‌دهنده (به عنوان سرمايه‌گذار) و شهرداري (به عنوان متولّي مديريت شهري) تعريف شده و از تئوري بازي‌ها براي مدل‌سازي و كمّي‌سازي رفتار راهبردي اين دو عامل بهره گرفته شده است. جهت آزمودن عملكرد مدل پيشنهادي، توسعه‌ي كاربري اراضي شهري شهرك روزيه‌ي سمنان، در غالب دو سناريوي مختلف و با در نظر گرفتن تأثير كاربري‌هاي موجود در سراسر شهر سمنان با بهره‌گيري از مدل پيشنهادي، طرح‌ريزي شده است. نتايج پياده‌سازي به ويژه در توزيع انواع كاربري‌ها (با توجه به ويژگي‌هاي منحصر به هر كاربري)، نمايانگر توانايي مناسب مدل براي شبيه‌سازي نتايج برنامه‌ريزي توسعه‌ي شهري، مبتني بر ضوابط طرح جامع است.

Urban growth is a dynamic and evolutionary spatial and social process that relates to the changes of urban spatial units and the transformation of people’s lifestyles and consequently demographic changes. Considering the urban development process as a function of land uses interactions, population structure and the strategic behavior of the agents involved in the urban development process (the Developer as the investor and the Municipality as the planner and regulator), asking for developing a framework to capable modeling and analyzing these driving actors. This study is presented a model based on the integration of cellular automata, multi-criteria analysis and agent-based Game theory for land use planning and simulation of urban development using two urban population changing scenarios. This integration is used as a tool for modeling and quantifying land uses interactions with respect to their service region. Moreover, in the proposed model, land-use type change is defined as the outcome of the interaction between two decision-makers (agent): Developer and Municipality. Game theory is used to model and quantify the strategic behavior of these two agents. The developer’s strategy is to develop spatial units that have more suitability due to their neighborhood externalities and current demand for each land use type while the municipality’s strategy is to protect the zoning regulations based on the master plan and land use suitability. The utility functions are defined based on each agents’ preferences, the game structure for each spatial unit is composed based on developer priorities (as proposer) and the bargaining situation between agents involved in the development process (as a sequential game) is solved using backward induction process. Utilizing Game theory will result in finding an optimal and rational strategy for both agents in developing land-use types for each permissible spatial unit. The methodology presented in this study proposes a rational and realistic approach for urban land use planning and simulating urban growth. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it was implemented in the region of Roozieh in the city of Semnan. Two scenarios were modeled based on the Semnan’s approved master plan. The suitability of developed land-use types is evaluated using multi-criteria analysis. In order to provide a more efficient evaluation method, the outcome of the implementation of each scenario using the proposed method was evaluated to provide a basis for comparing results based on the concept of spatial equity. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the outcome of urban land-use development plans based on the regulations and guidelines of the master plan, especially for the balanced distribution of services and service availability.