بررسي عوامل موثر بر واردات كاغذ و مقواي ايران با استفاده از آزمون باند كرانه ها

Analysis of Import Demand Function of Iranian Paper and Paperboard Using Bond Test

ﺧﻤﯿﺮ و ﮐﺎﻏﺬ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻓﺮآوردهاي ﭼﻮﺑﯽ ﻃﯽ ﭼﻨﺪ دﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات زﯾﺎدي را در ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺎزار ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي و ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ازﻧﻈﺮ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﺮان ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪود ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ داﺧﻠﯽ و روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﻣﺼﺮف ﭼﻮب و ﻓﺮآوردهﻫﺎي آن، واردات ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ راه ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز داﺧﻠﯽ ﻣﻮردﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮارﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ از ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺎزار ﮐﺎﻏﺬ و ﻣﻘﻮا در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1363 ﺗﺎ 1396، ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي آزﻣﻮن ﺑﺎﻧﺪ ﮐﺮاﻧﻪﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﮐﺸﺶﻫﺎي ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ اﯾﻦ اﻟﮕﻮ، ﺟﻬﺖ و ﻣﻘﺪار ﮐﻤﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان واردات ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖآﻣﺪه ﻧﺸﺎن داد از ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﺪون ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺸﺶ 2/16 در ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت و 1/26 درﺻﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ داﺧﻠﯽ ﭼﻮب از ﺟﻨﮕﻞﻫﺎي ﺷﻤﺎل ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ ﮐﺸﺶﻫﺎي 0/69- و 0/57- ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ را ﺑﺮ واردات ﮐﺎﻏﺬ داﺷﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﺤﺮﯾﻢﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮاﯾﺐ، 0/50- و 0/41- ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ واردات ﮐﺎﻏﺬ و ﻣﻘﻮا ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ

Wood pulp and paper as one of the wood products has undergone many changes in the regional and global market share in terms of production capacity and consumption patterns over the past few decades. Due to the limited domestic resources and the increasing trend of wood consumption and its products in Iran, imports have been considered as one of the most important ways to supply the domestic demand. The main intention of this study is to perform scientific analysis of the paper and paperboard market conditions over the period of 1986 to 2018 using Bound Test. The quantitative value of the impact of studied variables on the amount of paper and paperboard imports was calculated using the estimated short- and long-term elasticity. The results showed that among the studied variables the GDP (without taking into account of oil exportations) with elasticity of 2.16% in the short run and 1.26% in the long run, an‎d the domestic wood production from northern forests with amount of -0.69 and -0.57 elasticity in short and long term, respectively; had the most impacts on paper imports. However, the economic sanctions considered as a new variable in this study resulted in a decrease of paper and paperboard imports with coefficients of -0.50 and -0.41 imports, in the short and long run respectively.