پيش بيني گسترش فيزيكي شهري با استفاده از مدل تصميم گيري چند معياري (مطالعه موردي: شهرستان رشت)

Prediction of Urban Physical Expansion Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model (Case study: Rasht City)

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﻓﺰاﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺪون ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي در ﺣﺎل ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﺳﺖ. زﯾﺮا ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ روز اﻓﺰون ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي و ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و ﺳﺎزﻫﺎي ﺑﺪون ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات زﯾﺎدي در ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد آورده ﮐﻪ ﻟﺰوم ﻫﺪاﯾﺖ آﮔﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ و ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﻓﻀﺎي زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ را ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪاي از ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﯿﺰﯾﮑﯽ ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺖ. روش ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ: ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن رﺷﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺮﮐﺰ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﯿﻼن ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮﻧﺸﯿﻨﯽ زﯾﺎدي ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ و ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آﺗﯽ ﺷﻬﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ 14 ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي- اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﻈﺮات ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن و روش دﻟﻔﯽ در ﺳﺎل 1397 اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ از روش ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺧﻄﯽ وزن دار و ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ اي ﺑﺮاي ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي ﺗﻮان اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮏ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﺟﺮاي روش ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ از ﮐﻞ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺣﺪود 16/12 درﺻﺪ داراي ﺗﻮان ﺧﯿﻠﯽ زﯾﺎد و ﺣﺪود 29/54 درﺻﺪ از ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ و ﺑﺎﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﺪون ﺗﻮان ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺤﺜﺖ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي را ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰان و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮان ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﭘﯿﺸﮕﯿﺮاﻧﻪ و ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﮐﻨﻨﺪه را در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ.

Background and Objective: The unplanned expansion of cities is one of the most important issues of urban management in developing countries. Because the increasing development of urban society and unplanned constructions have created many changes in their spatial construction, which has led to the need for conscious guidance and design of suitable living space for cities. The purpose of this study is to find a set of suitable spatial zones for urban physical development. Method: Rasht city, as the center of Gilan County, has undergone many demographic and urban changes. In order to plan optimally and appropriately for the future urban development of the studied city, 14 ecological and socio-economic criteria were selected based on the opinions of experts and the Delphi method in 2018. Then the weighted linear composition method and network analysis process were used to zoning the ecological potential of the area for urban development. Findings: The results of the implementation of the multi-criteria evaluation method showed that the total area of the region is about 16.12% with very high capability. 29.54% of the region is unsuitable due to ecological conditions and unsustainable social tissue. Discussion and Conclusions: The results of this research can provide more study opportunities for planners and decision-makers to take preventive and controlling factors into strategic decisions.