اثر تغيير اقليم بر كاربري اراضي و عملكرد بخش كشاورزي استان مازندران

گروه اقتصاد كشاورزي

گروه اقتصاد كشاورزي

Background and Objective: Climate change is today's problem and tomorrow's crisis. In this study, the effect of climate change on selected products and land usage was investigated in four regions in Mazandaran province. Method: Firstly, time series variables of temperature and rainfall were examined during 1981-2012. Also we study the effect of annual mean temperature and rainfall, as the proxies of climate change, on the performance of under-cultivation wheat, barley and rice farms by using regression analysis from 1981 to2012. In the next step, the scenario effect of increasing 1-degree temperature and deceasing 1-mm precipitation on land usage and performance of agricultural crops were analyzed using regression analysis and considering them in Positive Math Programming model (PMP). Findings: The results of regression analysis showed that there was a noticeable temperature increase and rainfall decrease. In addition, they showed that climate change has a significant effect on wheat, barley and rice performance. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of PMP model analysis showed a change in land use to increase rice and barley cultivation. The findings show that the climate change effect is not necessarily negative on all crops, so we can pay attention to the positive effects as well and utilize them in optimum exploitation of resources and the region's facilities.