كليدواژه :
خشكسالي , تاب آوري جوامع انساني , تحليل رگرسيون , شاخص بارش استاندارد , تحليل مولفه هاي اصلي
چكيده فارسي :
پديده خشكسالي با تأثير بر مسائل اقتصادي، اجتماعي و زيست‌محيطي، منجر به آسيب‌پذيري جوامع انساني مي‌شود. در مناطق خشك نظير استان يزد، اثرات خشكسالي با پديده خشكي ادغام مي شود و فشارهاي شديدي بر جوامع وارد مي كند.در اين مطالعه به تحليل آسيب پذيري و تاب آوري جوامع انساني با خشكسالي به استناد داده هاي هواشناسي و پايگاه داده هاي واقعي سرشماري عمومي در طول دوره آماري 20ساله پرداخته شده است. از متغيرهاي اقتصادي، اجتماعي و زيست محيطي به عنوان شاخص هاي تاب آوري وآسيب پذيري استفاده شد. با تحليل مؤلفه‌هاي اصلي چند عامل، به‌‌عنوان مؤلفه‌هاي اصلي انتخاب گرديد.با محاسبه شاخص SPI در منطقه خشك‌ترين سال مشخص گرديد و با محاسبه ميانگين وزني شاخص همبستگي آن با مؤلفه‌هاي اصلي منتخب براساس استنباط آماري مناسب بررسي گرديد. سپس با استفاده از تحليل رگرسيون تاثير خشكسالي بر ابعاد مختلف تابآوري جوامع انساني بررسي شد.نتايج، وقوع خشكسالي هاي مكرر در سال هاي اخير در منطقه را بيان مي كند.تحليل ارتباطات خشكسالي با عوامل جوامع انساني از بين عوامل متعدد اقتصادي،مهم ترين عامل موثر در تابآوري جوامع، سطح درامد مي باشد.تحليل عوامل اجتماعي بيانگر ،تاثير خشكسالي بر تعداد شركت تعاوني كشاورزي و نرخ بيكاري ميباشد.نتايج عوامل زيست محيطي نشان ميدهد، كه مساحت جنگل كاري ،بيشترين تاثير دربرابر خشكسالي را دارد.بطور كلي در اين استان ارتباط تنگاتنگي بين خشكسالي آسيب پذيري و تاب آوري جوامع انساني حاكم است.بنابراين هر ميزان آسيب پذيري كاهش يابد ميزان تاب آوري جوامع بيشتر مي شود.ميزان وابستگي به طبيعت بر آسيب پذيري و تابآوري تاثير گذار است بنابراين در مديريت بلند مدت اين مناطق بايستي وابستگي جوامع انساني به خشكسالي كاسته شود تا نوسانات آن منجر به تخريب تاب آوري اين جوامع نگردد.براي اين منظور بهترين راهكار تنظيم تقاضاي جوامع انساني متناسب با زنجيره توليد،صنايع تبديلي و بازيافت در اين مناطق است
چكيده لاتين :
Explanation of the subject: The annual drought phenomenon, by affecting economic, social and environmental issues, leads to the vulnerability of urban and rural households and the instability of their livelihoods. Yazd is one of the provinces with drought. Consecutive droughts in the province necessitate integrated management and community adaptation in times of drought.
Method: Taking into account the length of the statistical period of 20 years and to obtain the results with a high level of confidence, the main data of the census documents that have been compiled for the development of cities and villages have been used. By analyzing the main components of several factors, it was selected as the main components. By calculating the standard precipitation index in the arid region, the driest year was determined and by calculating the weighted average of their correlation index with the main components of socio-economic and ecological environment based on appropriate statistical inference. At the end of the year, the effect of drought on different dimensions was presented by step-by-step linear regression, analysis and communication between them to adapt and resilience of individuals in society.
According to the general results, one of the most important economic and dry economic losses is the annual income of the villagers, which can be due to the decrease in the area under cultivation and production of the main agricultural products. In the social sector, people with knowledge and awareness should increase their adaptive capacity to the occurrence of drought, in order to reduce the vulnerability of social issues to the phenomenon of drought. The results show that unemployment insurance has increased following the drought. The main reason for this is the unemployment of farmers affected by drought, so changing jobs along with temporary migration or the production of handicrafts, etc. can increase the relative income of households at the time of occurrence and prevent unemployment in these conditions. Increasing unemployment will cause other social harms such as poverty, declining health, increasing disease, and reducing judicial and social security. According to the results, one of the components that has established a high standard of rainfall during the drought year is the theft of livestock, which shows a decrease in the social security of the community. People in the study community increase their adaptability to the annual drought by increasing breeding work, such as rangeland improvement, rainfall collection, biological improvement, afforestation, and irrigation reform.
