چكيده لاتين :
Due to the natural environment and political events, identifying crisis
factors in the tourism industry has become a basic requirement for many
tourist destinations. Due to Iran's location in the Middle East, which is
plagued with crises, formulating a unified risk strategy in tourism is
unavoidable.
Introduction
On the one hand, strategic management of crisis and disaster is an
essential element in managing the sustainable development of tourism.
Risk assessment is also one of the main components of the crisis
management planning process. On the other hand, one of the necessities
of crisis management is to adopt a flexibility strategy, which means that
in different stages of a crisis, one must use a strategy appropriate to that
stage. Therefore, considering the methods of dealing with the crisis and
its management in the Iranian tourism industry, these important
questions arise that 1. What are the risk factors in Iran's tourism industry? 2. What is the prioritization of risk factors in the Iranian
tourism industry? 3. How can crises be predicted, controlled, and
directed using the proposed model?
Materials and Methods
The present study is developmental-applied research that has provided
an integrated strategy for crisis management since the tourism industry
is service-based. The target population was a group of experts and
academics in the tourism industry. The fuzzy cognitive mapping
technique analyzed the collected data.
Discussion and Results
So as to answer the first question of the research on identifying critical
factors in the Iranian tourism industry, 15 factors were identified, which
are: political and social instability in the region, infrastructure
shortages, environmental pollution, currency fluctuations and price
instability, the prevalence of infectious diseases, natural disasters,
climate restrictions, weakness in safety and insurance, weakness inmarket
support, fuel price fluctuations, controls double security,
terrorist attacks, bad tourism experience and dissatisfaction of tourists,
differences in attitudes towards different nationalities, and visa
problems. In order to answer the second question of the research based
on prioritization of risk factors, the following factors were identified as
the most important risk factors by using expert opinions and results of
Fcmapper software: political and social instability in the region,
infrastructure deficiencies, environmental pollution, price fluctuations,
the prevalence of infectious diseases, and natural disasters. Then, in
order to answer the third question, based on how to use the proposed
model to predict, control and manage crises, three scenarios were
designed.
In the first scenario, the factors of political instability and infrastructure
shortages were considered the first and second priorities. The factors of
climate constraints and weakness in market support were considered
low (sub-priorities) priorities. and in order to create a scenario, these
four factors were strengthened so that The result of this scenario
positively influences all other factors and can increase them. In other words, if two critical factors with a high degree of priority are reduced,
we can see a reduction in other factors, including double security
control, dissatisfaction, and a bad tourism experience, which will boost
travel demand. In the second scenario, the factor of natural disasters as
a priority factor and visa problems as a factor of low priority (subpriority)
are strengthened, which leads to an increase in other critical
factors in tourism. In other words, the reduction of natural disasters can
reduce the prevalence of diseases and illnesses, which in turn increases
the health and safety of society. In the third scenario, the currency
fluctuation factor as a priority factor and the weak market support factor
as a low (second priority) factor are strengthened. The result of the
scenario shows an increase in other critical factors in tourism, or on the
other hand, a decrease in currency fluctuations and price instability, and
a decrease in weak market support, will reduce fuel price fluctuations,
which can lead to increased tourism demand and prosperity. Conclusions
The results of the scenario show lack of risk and threat understanding
may be determinants that can weaken the image, reputation, and
competitiveness of a country. or also may have a decisive impact on
the performance of a country from an economic point of view and
especially the impact of services and infrastructure (transportation, etc.)
or safety and security. Competitive advantage, image, reputation,
service delivery, and cultural differences determine factors in
developing an integrated risk management strategy. For example, safety
and security are important factors that impact tourists' demand in the
tourism industry. The response of different countries to various events
depends on various factors, especially economic situation, governance
model, readiness to deal with a crisis, international community
response, and mass media and business culture.
Furthermore, it should be noted that tourism is an interdisciplinary
industry that is intertwined with other sciences such as sociology,
psychology, geography, and anthropology. In addition, management
decisions must be made based on practical management and marketing
practices. Practical and strategic approaches in crises and natural
disasters in different countries and cultures can be different. As Hofstede states, people with different cultures tend to have different
management styles. Regarding the presented risk management model
of COSO (2004) and identifying risk factors in the Iranian tourism
industry, firstly, it is necessary to form a working group of experts and
stakeholders in this industry. Then, the existing risks can be assessed
by identifying the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats in
this industry's internal and external environment and its consequences
by prioritizing the identified risks. After designing a plan to deal with
these threats and risks, management decisions can be made. Finally,
continuous monitoring and review can be carried out. According to the
feedback of management decisions and its operation mode, the tourism
industry's crisis, sustainability, and continuity can be reduced.
